6201 Forest Pines Dr · Bellview, FL 32526

$100,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 656 sqft · Other · 34 Days on market

Built 1986 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lovely one bedroom one bath garden apartment with a lovely front yard and nice sized backyard with privacy fences on every side. The air conditioner, water heater, shower, toilet, vanity, floors and refrigerator were all replaced 6 1/2 years ago. Tile floors throughout. Large living room with vaulted ceilings and a king size bedroom. Windows and sliders were replaced to six years ago. It was under contract and passed a four point wind mitigation inspection a week ago. It is lovely, quiet and extremely efficient. Power bills estimate between 45 and $58 per month.

Key facts

• Backyard
• Garden apartment
• Front yard

Tags

• GARDEN APARTMENT
• FRONT YARD
• BACKYARD
• PRIVACY FENCES
• AIR CONDITIONER REPLACED
• WATER HEATER REPLACED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $457 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 5.2% in Bellview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#561 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Longleaf Elementary School (math 37% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 548 students, 77% FRL); Bellview Middle School (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #558 of 571 statewide, top 98%, 992 students, 76% FRL); Pine Forest High School (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 1,870 students, 62% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Escambia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 423 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.57%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $15,013
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $59,513
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32526

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 423
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,453 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $526	-5% $491	+0% $457	+5% $422	+10% $388
Rent	-10% $342	-5% $399	+0% $457	+5% $514	+10% $572
Rate	-1.0pp $507	-0.5pp $482	base $457	+0.5pp $431	+1.0pp $404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6225 Mobile Hwy Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1036	$1,550	$1.50	15d	15	0.99mi
2355 W Michigan Ave Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,202	$1.41	15d	9	1.36mi
7045 Pine Forest Rd Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$1,519	$1.50	15d	27	1.47mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $100,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-05-12
    listed $100,000 Active 568-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,395
• − Management: −$1,395
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $4,135
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$992
• After-tax cash flow: $4,489/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This garden apartment is in good condition with recent updates, making it a solid investment with potential for minor cosmetic improvements to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace any worn-out windows or sliders — New windows and sliders improve energy efficiency and appearance
• Resale Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers
• Rental Install smart home features — Smart home features can attract tech-savvy renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace any worn-out windows or sliders — New windows and sliders improve energy efficiency and appearance ↑
• Resale Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers ↑
• Rental Install smart home features — Smart home features can attract tech-savvy renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bellview

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #561
• US rank: #10731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellview, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,680
• Household income: $75,098
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1166.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 19% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.68%
• Current HPI: 252.6406
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B