454 County Route 16 · Smyrna, NY 13832

$32,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,110 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 565 Days on market

Built 1890 0.34 ac lot $29/sqft · 71% below area ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

*****All Investors! All Future Homeowners! ***** Welcome To 454 County Route 16. This Domicile Has A Big Front And Backyard. There Is Ample Storage Space Throughout The Dwelling. This Residence Falls Within The Norwich School District! Did I Mention The Picturesque Scenery? The List Does Not Stop! This Hidden Gem Is Just Waiting To Be Polished. Cash. As Is.

Key facts

• Ample storage space
• Picturesque scenery
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• BIG FRONT AND BACKYARD
• AMPLE STORAGE SPACE
• NORWICH SCHOOL DISTRICT
• PICTURESQUE SCENERY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $676 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,161 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, schools F.
• Norwich City School District (town): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #498 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Chenango County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($221 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chenango County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 565 days — a 12% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $28,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 565 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.55%
• DSCR: 5.03
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,731
• List price: $32,000
• Delta: -76.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 99.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.75×
• Total profit: $60,508
• Equity at exit: $28,828

10-year hold

• IRR: 94.9%
• Equity multiple: 17.11×
• Total profit: $144,356
• Equity at exit: $62,169

Cash invested: $8,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13832

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,136 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$168
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$40 /mo · $480/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $280

Max offer price $32,000

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $698	-5% $687	+0% $676	+5% $665	+10% $654
Rent	-10% $586	-5% $631	+0% $676	+5% $721	+10% $766
Rate	-1.0pp $692	-0.5pp $684	base $676	+0.5pp $668	+1.0pp $659

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,000
• Closing costs: $960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $32,000 Active 565 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $32,000 Active 563 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $32,000 Active 562 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $32,000 Active 561 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,000 Active 560 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $32,000 Active 558 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $32,000 Active 557 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $32,000 Active 554 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $32,000 Active 553 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $32,000 Active 552 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $32,000 Active 551 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $32,000 Active 548 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $32,000 Active 547 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $32,000 Active 546 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $32,000 Active 545 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    price $32,000 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    *****All Investors! All Future Homeowners! ***** Welcome To 454 County Route 16. This Domicile Has A Big Front And Backyard. There Is Ample Storage Space Throughout The Dwelling. This Residence Falls Within The Norwich School District! Did I Mention The Picturesque Scenery? The List Does Not Stop! This Hidden Gem Is Just Waiting To Be Polished. Cash. As Is.

17. 2026-04-07
    status Active 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    *****All Investors! All Future Homeowners! ***** Welcome To 454 County Route 16. This Domicile Has A Big Front And Backyard. There Is Ample Storage Space Throughout The Dwelling. This Residence Falls Within The Norwich School District! Did I Mention The Picturesque Scenery? The List Does Not Stop! This Hidden Gem Is Just Waiting To Be Polished. Cash. As Is.

18. 2026-01-23
    status Pending 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    *****All Investors! All Future Homeowners! ***** Welcome To 454 County Route 16. This Domicile Has A Big Front And Backyard. There Is Ample Storage Space Throughout The Dwelling. This Residence Falls Within The Norwich School District! Did I Mention The Picturesque Scenery? The List Does Not Stop! This Hidden Gem Is Just Waiting To Be Polished. Cash. As Is.

19. 2025-08-20
    price $34,900 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    *****All Investors! All Future Homeowners! ***** Welcome To 454 County Route 16. This Domicile Has A Big Front And Backyard. There Is Ample Storage Space Throughout The Dwelling. This Residence Falls Within The Norwich School District! Did I Mention The Picturesque Scenery? The List Does Not Stop! This Hidden Gem Is Just Waiting To Be Polished. Cash. As Is.

20. 2025-06-30
    price $37,000 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    *****All Investors! All Future Homeowners! ***** Welcome To 454 County Route 16. This Domicile Has A Big Front And Backyard. There Is Ample Storage Space Throughout The Dwelling. This Residence Falls Within The Norwich School District! Did I Mention The Picturesque Scenery? The List Does Not Stop! This Hidden Gem Is Just Waiting To Be Polished. Cash. As Is.

21. 2025-05-29
    price $39,900 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    *****All Investors! All Future Homeowners! ***** Welcome To 454 County Route 16. This Domicile Has A Big Front And Backyard. There Is Ample Storage Space Throughout The Dwelling. This Residence Falls Within The Norwich School District! Did I Mention The Picturesque Scenery? The List Does Not Stop! This Hidden Gem Is Just Waiting To Be Polished. Cash. As Is.

22. 2025-01-29
    price $44,000 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    *****All Investors! All Future Homeowners! ***** Welcome To 454 County Route 16. This Domicile Has A Big Front And Backyard. There Is Ample Storage Space Throughout The Dwelling. This Residence Falls Within The Norwich School District! Did I Mention The Picturesque Scenery? The List Does Not Stop! This Hidden Gem Is Just Waiting To Be Polished. Cash. As Is.

23. 2024-12-10
    price $44,900 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    *****All Investors! All Future Homeowners! ***** Welcome To 454 County Route 16. This Domicile Has A Big Front And Backyard. There Is Ample Storage Space Throughout The Dwelling. This Residence Falls Within The Norwich School District! Did I Mention The Picturesque Scenery? The List Does Not Stop! This Hidden Gem Is Just Waiting To Be Polished. Cash. As Is.

24. 2024-09-20
    listed $49,900 Active 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    *****All Investors! All Future Homeowners! ***** Welcome To 454 County Route 16. This Domicile Has A Big Front And Backyard. There Is Ample Storage Space Throughout The Dwelling. This Residence Falls Within The Norwich School District! Did I Mention The Picturesque Scenery? The List Does Not Stop! This Hidden Gem Is Just Waiting To Be Polished. Cash. As Is.

25. 2014-06-22
    listed $74,900
26. 2005-10-14
    soldstatus $52,000
27. 2005-10-14
    soldstatus $49,000
28. 2005-01-12
    listed $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,629
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,792
• − Property taxes: −$480
• − Insurance: −$160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,090
• − Management: −$1,090
• − Depreciation: −$931
• Taxable income: $8,085
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,940
• After-tax cash flow: $6,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Norwich City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621330
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,687
• Composite: 35.68/100
• National rank: #4874
• State rank: #498 of 590 in NY

Livability — Smyrna

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1161
• US rank: #24610

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 513

Population outlook (Chenango County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,669 people
• By 2030: 43,484 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 38,774 · -15.1%
• By 2050: 34,000 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 24,637 · -46.1%
• By 2100: 16,452 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chenango

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.2) · D 36.4% · R 63.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -27.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.2 2020: R+23.3 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+3.4 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.83%
• Current HPI: 355.791
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-39.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $32,000 Global MLS
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2026-01-23 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $34,900 Global MLS
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $37,000 Global MLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $39,900 Global MLS
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $44,000 Global MLS
• 2024-12-10 Price Changed $44,900 Global MLS
• 2024-09-20 Listed $49,900 Global MLS
• 2014-06-22 Listed $74,900 UNYREIS
• 2005-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-14 Sold (MLS) $52,000 UNYREIS
• 2005-01-12 Listed $53,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,244 · +44.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.