18 Bellwood · Flint, MI 48473

$27,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 1997 $745/mo HOA · 49% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-kept 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in South Valley Estates. Inside, you'll find nice flooring and plenty of natural light throughout. The spacious living room offers an open floor plan that flows easily into the kitchen, making the space feel comfortable and functional. The kitchen features ample cabinet and counter space, along with a large island that works well for daily meals or casual gatherings. The primary bedroom is generously sized, and the additional bedrooms are located on the opposite end of the home for added privacy. Outside, enjoy the large covered porch, perfect for relaxing, along with a shed for extra outdoor storage. A solid, practical home with a great layout and room to make it your own.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Outdoor storage
• Open floor plan

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• LARGE ISLAND
• COVERED PORCH
• OUTDOOR STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 10 x 10 acres
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $745

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Built as a residential single-family home
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Paved road access; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Free-standing electric range; Free-standing refrigerator; Ceiling fans; Central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $27k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $27k).
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 11.5% in Flint — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Swartz Creek Community Schools (suburban): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #298 of 540 in MI (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $187 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $810 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 49% of rent.

Recommended offer $27,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.75%
• DSCR: 2.95
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,340
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
53 Bilwa Trail Trl	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-14%)	2mo	$34,900	$42	51
7139 Miller Rd	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	928 (-5%)	20mo	$169,900	$183	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $13,661
• Equity at exit: $4,026

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.82×
• Total profit: $36,454
• Equity at exit: $2,334

Cash invested: $7,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48473

• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,528 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$142
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$34 /mo · $405/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$745
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,179

Max offer price $27,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,750
• Closing costs: $810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4369 W Roundhouse Rd Swartz Creek, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	779	$1,275	$1.64	13d	7	0.86mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $745 · $8,940/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $27,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 693-char remark

   Show marketing remark (744 chars)

   Welcome to this well-kept 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in South Valley Estates. Inside, you'll find nice flooring and plenty of natural light throughout. The spacious living room offers an open floor plan that flows easily into the kitchen, making the space feel comfortable and functional. The kitchen features ample cabinet and counter space, along with a large island that works well for daily meals or casual gatherings. The primary bedroom is generously sized, and the additional bedrooms are located on the opposite end of the home for added privacy. Outside, enjoy the large covered porch, perfect for relaxing, along with a shed for extra outdoor storage. A solid, practical home with a great layout and room to make it your own.

3. 2026-06-16
   listed $27,000 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (744 chars)

   Welcome to this well-kept 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in South Valley Estates. Inside, you'll find nice flooring and plenty of natural light throughout. The spacious living room offers an open floor plan that flows easily into the kitchen, making the space feel comfortable and functional. The kitchen features ample cabinet and counter space, along with a large island that works well for daily meals or casual gatherings. The primary bedroom is generously sized, and the additional bedrooms are located on the opposite end of the home for added privacy. Outside, enjoy the large covered porch, perfect for relaxing, along with a shed for extra outdoor storage. A solid, practical home with a great layout and room to make it your own.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,338
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,512
• − Property taxes: −$405
• − Insurance: −$135
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,467
• − Management: −$1,467
• − HOA: −$8,940
• − Depreciation: −$785
• Taxable income: $3,626
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$870
• After-tax cash flow: $2,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Swartz Creek Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2633420
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,586
• Composite: 29.37/100
• National rank: #6530
• State rank: #298 of 540 in MI

Livability — Flint

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #4946

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• City population: 93,814
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 22,339
• Household income: $77,921
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 310.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.16%
• Current HPI: 208.5281
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $27,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-16 Listed $27,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS