1111 Watkins St · Grundy, VA 24614

$114,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · Other public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1956 0.26 ac lot $87/sqft · at area comps Est $113k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 1956 Cape Cod located in the center of the county just off Rt. 460 on Watkins Street. This home has had some updates over the past several years - original floors have been refinished in the living room, dining room, up the stairs, landing upstairs and both bedrooms upstairs. The living room is spacious with a ceiling fan, a fireplace with a beautiful painted mantle with gas logs and the character of the stairs that accents the room. The dining room is just to the right of the front door and is open to the kitchen area with a breakfast bar. It has refinished original wood floors and a nice walk-in pantry closet. In the kitchen, there are all the appliances needed - refrigerator, smooth top range, microwave and dishwasher -- all stainless appliances. The laundry area is also in the kitchen area. The kitchen has ceramic tile floor, a small pantry closet and entry to the enclosed back porch area as well as entry to the basement/cellar. The upstairs has two bedrooms - the primary bedroom has refinished original wood floors, a walk-in closet and a window seat. The second bedroom has a dormer window and a closet and ceiling fan. The full bath has ceramic tile floor, a tub/shower combo and vanity. There is an exit door to the almost 200 sqft rear deck. The heating/cooling is provided by a heat pump and the roof is metal. The cellar/basement is unfinished. This home is very charming and priced to sell right away! Don't miss the opportunity! Call your favorite Realtor TODAY and let's make it yours!

Key facts

• Enclosed back porch
• Metal roof
• Ceramic tile floor

Tags

• REFINISHED ORIGINAL FLOORS
• WALK IN PANTRY CLOSET
• CERAMIC TILE FLOOR
• ENCLOSED BACK PORCH
• REAR DECK
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#309 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Buchanan County Public School District (rural): math 52% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #76 of 131 in VA (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $94k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.00%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,223
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: 1.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-11,925
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-1,818
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24614

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,066 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $366/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $932

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $138	+0% $105	+5% $73	+10% $40
Rent	-10% $21	-5% $63	+0% $105	+5% $147	+10% $190
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $135	base $105	+0.5pp $76	+1.0pp $45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $114,900 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $114,900 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $114,900 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $114,900 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $114,900 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 136 DOM
17. 2026-04-15
    price $119,900 1524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1524 chars)

    Charming 1956 Cape Cod located in the center of the county just off Rt. 460 on Watkins Street. This home has had some updates over the past several years - original floors have been refinished in the living room, dining room, up the stairs, landing upstairs and both bedrooms upstairs. The living room is spacious with a ceiling fan, a fireplace with a beautiful painted mantle with gas logs and the character of the stairs that accents the room. The dining room is just to the right of the front door and is open to the kitchen area with a breakfast bar. It has refinished original wood floors and a nice walk-in pantry closet. In the kitchen, there are all the appliances needed - refrigerator, smooth top range, microwave and dishwasher -- all stainless appliances. The laundry area is also in the kitchen area. The kitchen has ceramic tile floor, a small pantry closet and entry to the enclosed back porch area as well as entry to the basement/cellar. The upstairs has two bedrooms - the primary bedroom has refinished original wood floors, a walk-in closet and a window seat. The second bedroom has a dormer window and a closet and ceiling fan. The full bath has ceramic tile floor, a tub/shower combo and vanity. There is an exit door to the almost 200 sqft rear deck. The heating/cooling is provided by a heat pump and the roof is metal. The cellar/basement is unfinished. This home is very charming and priced to sell right away! Don't miss the opportunity! Call your favorite Realtor TODAY and let's make it yours!

18. 2026-01-14
    listed $124,900 Active 1524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1524 chars)

    Charming 1956 Cape Cod located in the center of the county just off Rt. 460 on Watkins Street. This home has had some updates over the past several years - original floors have been refinished in the living room, dining room, up the stairs, landing upstairs and both bedrooms upstairs. The living room is spacious with a ceiling fan, a fireplace with a beautiful painted mantle with gas logs and the character of the stairs that accents the room. The dining room is just to the right of the front door and is open to the kitchen area with a breakfast bar. It has refinished original wood floors and a nice walk-in pantry closet. In the kitchen, there are all the appliances needed - refrigerator, smooth top range, microwave and dishwasher -- all stainless appliances. The laundry area is also in the kitchen area. The kitchen has ceramic tile floor, a small pantry closet and entry to the enclosed back porch area as well as entry to the basement/cellar. The upstairs has two bedrooms - the primary bedroom has refinished original wood floors, a walk-in closet and a window seat. The second bedroom has a dormer window and a closet and ceiling fan. The full bath has ceramic tile floor, a tub/shower combo and vanity. There is an exit door to the almost 200 sqft rear deck. The heating/cooling is provided by a heat pump and the roof is metal. The cellar/basement is unfinished. This home is very charming and priced to sell right away! Don't miss the opportunity! Call your favorite Realtor TODAY and let's make it yours!

19. 2022-01-29
    listed $129,999
20. 2020-09-28
    soldstatus $94,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $366 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $942 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$576/yr (+$48/mo · 157.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 100% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$366
• − Insurance: −$1,241
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,023
• − Management: −$1,023
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable loss: −$644
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$155
• After-tax cash flow: $1,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buchanan County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $29,669
• Composite: 47.84/100
• National rank: #2221
• State rank: #76 of 131 in VA

Livability — Grundy

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #11111

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grundy, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,992

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,160 people
• By 2030: 18,734 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 16,071 · -20.3%
• By 2050: 13,815 · -31.5%
• By 2075: 10,376 · -48.5%
• By 2100: 8,432 · -58.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.6) · D 14.5% · R 85.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -65.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.5pp · 2024: -70.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.6 2020: R+67.6 2016: R+60.4 2012: R+34.7 2008: R+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.05%
• Current HPI: 97.3351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+26.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $119,900 SWVAR
• 2026-01-14 Listed $124,900 SWVAR
• 2022-01-29 Listed $129,999 SWVAR
• 2020-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $94,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $366 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.