510 Arabian Ct · Pheasant Run, OH 44050

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 443 Days on market

Built 1976 5,662 sqft lot Est $220k · 39% under $80/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home has been renovated within the last year and includes, a remodeled kitchen, both baths are remodeled, all new flooring, new paint, new furnace, new hot water tank, new roof, new water lines and a new electrical box. This property is a must-see.

Key facts

• New furnace
• All new flooring
• New hot water tank

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATHS
• ALL NEW FLOORING
• NEW PAINT
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW HOT WATER TANK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#475 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, employment A; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Keystone Local (rural): math 55% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #249 of 656 in OH (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $135k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.29%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,416
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
379 Stable Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,346 (+0%)	11mo	$137,000	$102	82
17225 Fairway Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-1%)	7mo	$239,900	$180	72
429 Morgan Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-8%)	16mo	$109,900	$89	67
19045 Whitehead Rd	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,421 (+6%)	6mo	$340,000	$239	65
364 Hickory Run	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-12%)	6mo	$131,000	$111	62
17569 Ringneck Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+5%)	14mo	$237,000	$168	62
131 Walleye Ct	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-2%)	5mo	$77,000	$58	62
42113 Meadow Ln	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,224 (-9%)	1mo	$207,000	$169	61
280 Horseshoe Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,432 (+6%)	14mo	$235,000	$164	60
249 Forest Park Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+8%)	8mo	$210,000	$144	60
42017 Meadow Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,524 (+13%)	12mo	$219,400	$144	47
284 Eastlake Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,508 (+12%)	16mo	$255,000	$169	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,132
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $26,014
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44050

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,751 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,581/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,341

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $400	-5% $362	+0% $324	+5% $286	+10% $248
Rent	-10% $186	-5% $255	+0% $324	+5% $393	+10% $462
Rate	-1.0pp $392	-0.5pp $358	base $324	+0.5pp $289	+1.0pp $253

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-02-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-10
   status Active
3. 2025-11-19
   status Pending
4. 2025-07-10
   price $135,000
5. 2025-04-24
   status Active
6. 2025-04-06
   status Pending
7. 2025-03-21
   status Active
8. 2025-03-18
   status Pending
9. 2025-02-18
   status Active
10. 2025-01-16
    historical Contingent
11. 2024-12-04
    price $140,000
12. 2024-10-09
    listed $145,000 Active
13. 2024-04-28
    historical $1,500
14. 2024-03-27
    listed $1,500
15. 2023-12-04
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,581 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,581 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,581
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,681
• − Management: −$1,681
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,945
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$467
• After-tax cash flow: $3,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keystone Local
• NCES district ID: 3904816
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $64,696
• Composite: 53.27/100
• National rank: #1493
• State rank: #249 of 656 in OH

Livability — Pheasant Run

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #7911

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pheasant Run, OH
• County: Lorain · 305,041 people
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 7,204
• Household income: $100,625
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 7.2

Population outlook (Lorain County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,924 people
• By 2030: 317,546 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 317,962 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 312,872 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 301,806 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 278,271 · -11.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Lorain

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 46.7% · R 52.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.9pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+0.3 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.79%
• Current HPI: 200.695
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+125.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2025-12-10 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2025-11-19 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $135,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-04-24 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2025-04-06 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2025-03-21 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2025-03-18 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2025-02-18 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2025-01-16 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $140,000 MLSNOW
• 2024-10-09 Listed $145,000 MLSNOW
• 2024-04-28 Rental Removed $1,500 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-03-27 Listed for Rent $1,500 TURBOTENANT
• 2023-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,581 · +17.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.