280 Coyote Trl · New Fairview, TX 76078

$225,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2000 4.23 ac lot Est $297k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Dont miss out on this large manufactured home on 8.2 acres. Very nice home, 2 fireplaces, one in master the other in living, large kitchen, large bedrooms, will make this a great home for a growing family. Must see to appericate.

Key facts

• 4 acres
• Rural setting
• 4.23 acre lot

Tags

• 4 ACRES
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 287
• RURAL SETTING
• AMPLE SPACE FOR EXPANSION
• ADDITIONAL STRUCTURES
• RENTAL INCOME POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Horse permitted on the property; Survey available; Will not subdivide
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association (no HOA)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2-car carport; Gravel parking surface
• Security: No specific security features provided
• Utilities: Asphalt access; Septic system
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Metal roof; Built in 2000; Construction materials listed as unknown
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Creek on the property; Acreage lot (approximately 4.23 acres); County road frontage; Gravel road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (all on the main level) — primary bedroom on main level
• Flooring: No specific flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Pantry; Tile counters; Cable TV available; Walk-in closet(s); Six total rooms; One living area; One dining area; One-level layout
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $222k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.5% in New Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#901 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Decatur ISD (town): math 40% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #323 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carson El (math 37% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 548 students, 44% FRL); Mccarroll Middle (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 821 students, 47% FRL); Decatur H S (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,140 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.21%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $296,960
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
282 Coyote Trl	0.03mi	4/2.0	2,280 (-11%)	20mo	$265,000	$116	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $143,285
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.44×
• Total profit: $405,571
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76078

• Home prices YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,261 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,240/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,849

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $453	-5% $390	+0% $326	+5% $262	+10% $199
Rent	-10% $147	-5% $237	+0% $326	+5% $415	+10% $505
Rate	-1.0pp $439	-0.5pp $383	base $326	+0.5pp $268	+1.0pp $208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
348 Coyote Trl Rhome, TX	4.0	2.0	2128	$1,995	$0.94	0d	1	0.23mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 693-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $225,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,240 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,878/yr (+$156/mo · 83.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,240
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,171
• − Management: −$2,171
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $280
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$67
• After-tax cash flow: $3,846/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816500
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,504
• Composite: 36.33/100
• National rank: #4691
• State rank: #323 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Fairview

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #901
• US rank: #16172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• City population: 10,200
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,828
• Household income: $99,866
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 11% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.94%
• Current HPI: 325.22
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+194.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2004-08-10 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2004-05-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2004-03-26 Listed $76,500 NTREIS
• 2000-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,240 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.