13096 Furnace Mountain Rd · Point of Rocks, MD 20180

$380,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,034 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1974 0.59 ac lot $368/sqft · 23% below area Est $497k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own this charming one-level home situated on a . 59-acre lot in desirable Loudoun County! This property features 3 bedrooms, a dedicated office space, a kitchen, and a cozy living room—ready for your personal touch and vision. Enjoy the peaceful setting with plenty of outdoor space to make your own. Needs a little TLC, but with some love and updates, this home has incredible potential to truly shine. Don’t miss this opportunity—won’t last long!

Key facts

• One-level home
• Outdoor space
• 0.59 acre lot

Tags

• ONE-LEVEL HOME
• DEDICATED OFFICE SPACE
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-103/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $378k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $298k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.0% in Point of Rocks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#210 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lovettsville Elementary (math 47% / reading 77%, grade B, #480 of 1,108 statewide, top 46%, 526 students, 14% FRL); Harmony Middle (math 50% / reading 77%, grade B+, #128 of 342 statewide, top 39%, 1,083 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $106k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($346k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $380k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $298,473 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $496,592
• List price: $380,000
• Delta: -23.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13118 Furnace Mountain Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,065 (+3%)	8mo	$400,000	$376	84
13277 Cool Hollow Ln	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+8%)	20mo	$575,000	$513	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $206,295
• Equity at exit: $342,334

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $607,708
• Equity at exit: $738,256

Cash invested: $106,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20180

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,985 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,586/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$627
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,996

Max offer price $378,478

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $206	-5% $99	+0% $-9	+5% $-116	+10% $-224
Rent	-10% $-244	-5% $-127	+0% $-9	+5% $109	+10% $227
Rate	-1.0pp $183	-0.5pp $88	base $-9	+0.5pp $-107	+1.0pp $-207

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,000
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $380,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $380,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $380,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $380,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $380,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $380,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $380,000 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $380,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $380,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $380,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $380,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $380,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $380,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $380,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-02-27
    price $400,000 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this charming one-level home situated on a . 59-acre lot in desirable Loudoun County! This property features 3 bedrooms, a dedicated office space, a kitchen, and a cozy living room—ready for your personal touch and vision. Enjoy the peaceful setting with plenty of outdoor space to make your own. Needs a little TLC, but with some love and updates, this home has incredible potential to truly shine. Don’t miss this opportunity—won’t last long!

16. 2026-02-27
    status Active 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this charming one-level home situated on a . 59-acre lot in desirable Loudoun County! This property features 3 bedrooms, a dedicated office space, a kitchen, and a cozy living room—ready for your personal touch and vision. Enjoy the peaceful setting with plenty of outdoor space to make your own. Needs a little TLC, but with some love and updates, this home has incredible potential to truly shine. Don’t miss this opportunity—won’t last long!

17. 2026-02-23
    historical 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this charming one-level home situated on a . 59-acre lot in desirable Loudoun County! This property features 3 bedrooms, a dedicated office space, a kitchen, and a cozy living room—ready for your personal touch and vision. Enjoy the peaceful setting with plenty of outdoor space to make your own. Needs a little TLC, but with some love and updates, this home has incredible potential to truly shine. Don’t miss this opportunity—won’t last long!

18. 2026-02-21
    listed $380,000 Active 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this charming one-level home situated on a . 59-acre lot in desirable Loudoun County! This property features 3 bedrooms, a dedicated office space, a kitchen, and a cozy living room—ready for your personal touch and vision. Enjoy the peaceful setting with plenty of outdoor space to make your own. Needs a little TLC, but with some love and updates, this home has incredible potential to truly shine. Don’t miss this opportunity—won’t last long!

19. 2019-05-03
    soldstatus $210,000
20. 2019-04-21
    status Pending 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this cozy one level home in Loudoun County ! 3 bedrooms , office, 1.5 baths on a . 59 ac lot ! This home is being sold as is ! Come check it out !! Won't last long at this price !! PRICE REDUCED !!

21. 2019-04-15
    soldstatus $210,000 Closed 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this cozy one level home in Loudoun County ! 3 bedrooms , office, 1.5 baths on a . 59 ac lot ! This home is being sold as is ! Come check it out !! Won't last long at this price !! PRICE REDUCED !!

22. 2019-03-17
    historical Active Under Contract 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this cozy one level home in Loudoun County ! 3 bedrooms , office, 1.5 baths on a . 59 ac lot ! This home is being sold as is ! Come check it out !! Won't last long at this price !! PRICE REDUCED !!

23. 2019-01-27
    price $224,990 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this cozy one level home in Loudoun County ! 3 bedrooms , office, 1.5 baths on a . 59 ac lot ! This home is being sold as is ! Come check it out !! Won't last long at this price !! PRICE REDUCED !!

24. 2018-11-07
    listed $239,990 Active 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this cozy one level home in Loudoun County ! 3 bedrooms , office, 1.5 baths on a . 59 ac lot ! This home is being sold as is ! Come check it out !! Won't last long at this price !! PRICE REDUCED !!

25. 2010-10-18
    soldstatus $120,000
26. 2010-10-15
    soldstatus $120,000
27. 2010-10-15
    soldstatus $120,000 Sold
28. 2010-10-08
    status Contract
29. 2010-07-28
    historical Contingent (Kick Out)
30. 2010-07-23
    historical
31. 2010-06-22
    price $125,000 Active
32. 2010-06-22
    status Active
33. 2010-06-20
    historical Expired
34. 2010-04-19
    status Active
35. 2010-04-17
    historical Expired
36. 2010-04-16
    price $150,000 Active
37. 2010-04-16
    status Active
38. 2010-04-08
    status Contract
39. 2009-12-22
    historical Contingent (Kick Out)
40. 2009-12-09
    listed $140,000 Active
41. 2009-12-09
    listed $125,000
42. 2009-11-17
    historical Withdrawn
43. 2009-11-16
    historical
44. 2009-11-09
    price
45. 2009-10-30
    price
46. 2009-10-18
    listed Active
47. 2009-10-17
    listed $160,000
48. 2005-01-25
    soldstatus $237,500
49. 2005-01-20
    soldstatus $237,500
50. 2005-01-03
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,586 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,364 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: +$778/yr (+$65/mo · 30.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,286
• − Property taxes: −$2,586
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,865
• − Management: −$2,865
• − Depreciation: −$11,055
• Taxable loss: −$6,740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,618
• After-tax cash flow: $1,514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Loudoun County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102250
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $121,927
• Composite: 67.43/100
• National rank: #379
• State rank: #7 of 131 in VA

Livability — Point of Rocks

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #10387

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,333
• Population (ZIP): 7,791

Population outlook (Loudoun County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 503,590 people
• By 2030: 568,852 · +13.0%
• By 2040: 701,480 · +39.3%
• By 2050: 828,841 · +64.6%
• By 2075: 1,105,645 · +119.6%
• By 2100: 1,265,472 · +151.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Loudoun

• 2024 margin: D (+16.3) · D 56.6% · R 40.4% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.0pp toward D · 2008: 8.2pp · 2024: 16.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.3 2020: D+25.0 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+4.5 2008: D+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.48%
• Current HPI: 312.1538
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+213.7% since first listed

45 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $400,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-27 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $380,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2019-04-21 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-15 Sold (MLS) $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-17 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-01-27 Price Changed $224,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-11-07 Listed $239,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2010-10-15 Sold (MLS) $120,000 MRIS
• 2010-10-15 Sold (MLS) $120,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-10-08 Pending — MRIS
• 2010-07-28 Contingent — MRIS
• 2010-07-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-06-22 Relisted — MRIS
• 2010-06-22 Price Changed $125,000 MRIS
• 2010-06-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-04-19 Relisted — MRIS
• 2010-04-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-04-16 Relisted — MRIS
• 2010-04-16 Price Changed $150,000 MRIS
• 2010-04-08 Pending — MRIS
• 2009-12-22 Contingent — MRIS
• 2009-12-09 Listed $140,000 MRIS
• 2009-12-09 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-11-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 2009-11-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-11-09 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2009-10-30 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2009-10-18 Listed — MRIS
• 2009-10-17 Listed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $237,500 Public Records
• 2005-01-20 Sold (MLS) $237,500 MRIS
• 2005-01-03 Delisted — MRIS
• 2004-06-08 Listed $250,000 MRIS
• 2001-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records
• 2001-07-25 Sold (MLS) $154,000 MRIS
• 2001-06-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-05-22 Listed $149,900 MRIS
• 2001-05-18 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-04-17 Listed — MRIS
• 1993-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 1989-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $127,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,586 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.