155 Pawnee Ave · Dover, PA 17315

$77,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 71 Days on market

Built 2011 $84/sqft · at area comps Est $91k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3BR 1 1/2BA mobile is ready for your touch. Here is an opportunity to purchase a mobile at an affordable price in this beautifully maintained park. This property does need work. Take this opportunity to make it yours! Enjoy the open areas with daily opportunities to see deer and other wildlife. This property does require a shed, there is not one included. Consult park management for requirements. Park lot rent for 2026: Lot rent is $551 (+$41 for water and +$50 for sewer). Dog (under 50lbs) extra $10/ month. Check park for breed restrictions. Trash is $74/Q through Penn Waste. Storage available for $60/month. Community Room for 1x fee of $10 for access card. This has full kitchen and dining set up for entertaining.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2011
• Listed 71 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $557 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 4.1% in Dover — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#680 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dover Area SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #232 of 539 in PA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,226 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.63%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,437
• List price: $77,900
• Delta: -14.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $22,845
• Equity at exit: $11,615

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $65,586
• Equity at exit: $6,735

Cash invested: $21,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17315

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,360 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $918/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $557

Break-even live

Break-even rent $655

Max offer price $77,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,475
• Closing costs: $2,337
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3812 Fox Chase Dr Dover, PA	2.0	1.0	837	$1,295	$1.55	13d	1	0.37mi
3230 Oakland Rd Unit 1 Dover, PA	1.0	1.5	552	$1,075	$1.95	43d	1	1.03mi
2670 Springhouse Bnd Dover, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	991	$1,765	$1.78	13d	17	1.23mi
30g Stony Ln Dover, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	697	$1,389	$1.99	13d	13	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $77,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $77,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $77,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $77,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $77,900 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $77,900 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $77,900 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $77,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $77,900 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $77,900 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $77,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $77,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,900 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $77,900 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    listed $77,900 Active 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    This 3BR 1 1/2BA mobile is ready for your touch. Here is an opportunity to purchase a mobile at an affordable price in this beautifully maintained park. This property does need work. Take this opportunity to make it yours! Enjoy the open areas with daily opportunities to see deer and other wildlife. This property does require a shed, there is not one included. Consult park management for requirements. Park lot rent for 2026: Lot rent is $551 (+$41 for water and +$50 for sewer). Dog (under 50lbs) extra $10/ month. Check park for breed restrictions. Trash is $74/Q through Penn Waste. Storage available for $60/month. Community Room for 1x fee of $10 for access card. This has full kitchen and dining set up for entertaining.

17. 2026-04-08
    historical $77,900 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    This 3BR 1 1/2BA mobile is ready for your touch. Here is an opportunity to purchase a mobile at an affordable price in this beautifully maintained park. This property does need work. Take this opportunity to make it yours! Enjoy the open areas with daily opportunities to see deer and other wildlife. This property does require a shed, there is not one included. Consult park management for requirements. Park lot rent for 2026: Lot rent is $551 (+$41 for water and +$50 for sewer). Dog (under 50lbs) extra $10/ month. Check park for breed restrictions. Trash is $74/Q through Penn Waste. Storage available for $60/month. Community Room for 1x fee of $10 for access card. This has full kitchen and dining set up for entertaining.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $918 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,074 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$156/yr (+$13/mo · 17.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,364
• − Property taxes: −$918
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,305
• − Management: −$1,305
• − Depreciation: −$2,266
• Taxable income: $5,769
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,385
• After-tax cash flow: $5,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dover Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4207680
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,418
• Composite: 40.44/100
• National rank: #3725
• State rank: #232 of 539 in PA

Livability — Dover

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #680
• US rank: #6649

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Weigelstown, PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,434

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.65%
• Current HPI: 247.2403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $77,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon $77,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $918 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.