321 Wallace St · Erie, PA 16507

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1892 2,801 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this 3-4 bedroom 2-story home offering a spacious feel, tons of natural light, and multiple living options with its large open space on the first floor. Tons of possibilities include 2 living room areas, or one could be converted into a formal dining room. The second floor features a full bath and 3 bedrooms (one is captured). If a 4th bedroom is not needed, the extra space could be a home office, gym, studio, or one very massive walk in closet!

Key facts

• 2,801 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1892

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Sidewalks

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 39 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($33k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $120k implies a 445% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,948 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.30%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $59,136
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 Reed St	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,320 (-2%)	14mo	$52,000	$39	69
716 Wallace St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,312 (-2%)	10mo	$75,200	$57	68
403 Ash St	0.14mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,386 (+3%)	13mo	$130,000	$94	67
734 E 7th St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,320 (-2%)	8mo	$81,000	$61	66
715 E 7th St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,320 (-2%)	11mo	$58,500	$44	65
633 E 11th St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,347 (+0%)	2mo	$60,000	$45	65
762 E 7th St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,320 (-2%)	13mo	$30,000	$23	61
313 E 7th St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,272 (-5%)	10mo	$42,000	$33	60
1038 Queen St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,364 (+2%)	7mo	$130,000	$95	52
1111 Wayne St	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,383 (+3%)	13mo	$60,000	$43	46
711 E 10th St	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,544 (+15%)	14mo	$42,500	$28	37
942 E 5th St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,168 (-13%)	17mo	$35,000	$30	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $26,474
• Equity at exit: $62,034

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $70,758
• Equity at exit: $102,425

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16507

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,139 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,206/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $987

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
622 E 4th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	43d	1	0.18mi
519 E 6th St Unit 3 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$775	$0.86	43d	1	0.22mi
100 Erie Insurance Pl Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,425	$1.27	43d	1	0.55mi
223 E 9th St Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1564	$1,300	$0.83	43d	1	0.57mi
16 W 5th St Apt 504 Erie, PA	2.0	1.5	1072	$2,499	$2.33	43d	1	0.66mi
446 W 6th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	1.0	1.0	1160	$2,260	$1.95	43d	1	1.22mi
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	43d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 465-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $120,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,206 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,551 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$345/yr (+$29/mo · 28.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,206
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,094
• − Management: −$1,094
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$532
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$128
• After-tax cash flow: $1,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,597
• Household income: $33,361
• Rent vs Own: 66.2% rent · 33.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 24% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 163.92
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+445.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $120,000 GEBOR
• 1980-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,206 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.