Is 10731 Minita Crk in Marion, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C with a 7.4% cap rate and $148/mo modeled cash flow at a $160,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 10731 Minita Crk?

The modeled cap rate is 7.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,714/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

C Composite 59.43

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +18.4/30.0
ARV discount +15.0/15.0
DSCR +5.8/10.0
1% rule +5.7/10.0
Schools +4.8/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.3/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$160,000

10731 Minita Crk · Marion, TX 78124

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · SingleFamily · 98 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $116/sqft · 42% below area Est $274k · 42% under $100/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

The Denley - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

Walk-in closet
Open floorplan
En-suite bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.5% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Norma Krueger El (362 students, 50% FRL); Marion Middle (math 37% / reading 45%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 372 students, 41% FRL); Marion H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 456 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 667 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 65d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,600 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.07% ✓
Cap rate: 7.41%
Cash-on-cash: 3.97%
DSCR: 1.18
GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $273,971
List price: $160,000
Delta: -41.60%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1007 Oriole Way	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+10%)	11mo	$244,590	$162	39
1023 Oriole Way	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+10%)	13mo	$250,515	$166	39
1209 Birdsong Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+10%)	9mo	$249,990	$165	37
1205 Birdsong Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (+15%)	7mo	$274,590	$174	31
1003 Oriole Way	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (+15%)	11mo	$279,790	$178	31
1027 Oriole Way	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (+15%)	14mo	$279,790	$178	30
1110 Pigeon Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (+15%)	14mo	$279,390	$177	29
1135 Pigeon Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (+15%)	18mo	$264,590	$168	29
1138 Pigeon Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (+15%)	18mo	$253,090	$161	28
1140 Falcon Crst	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (+15%)	23mo	$289,430	$184	22
124 Green Jay Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (+15%)	23mo	$270,320	$172	21
1107 Falcon Crst	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (+15%)	23mo	$289,970	$184	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -10.0%
Equity multiple: 0.63×
Total profit: $-16,390
Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

IRR: -0.6%
Equity multiple: 0.96×
Total profit: $-1,751
Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 18 active · 1 under contract
Months of supply: 54.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $243,995 ($162/sqft)
Median days on market: 208 d
This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +23.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78124

Active inventory: 667
Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,714 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$839
Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
Insurance: −$67
HOA: −$100
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,526

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $259	-5% $204	+0% $148	+5% $93	+10% $38
Rent	-10% $13	-5% $81	+0% $148	+5% $216	+10% $284
Rate	-1.0pp $229	-0.5pp $189	base $148	+0.5pp $107	+1.0pp $65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $40,000
Closing costs: $4,800
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1115 Pigeon Ln Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,895	$1.07	70d	1	0.59mi
2207 Allison Creek Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,800	$0.97	75d	1	0.82mi
2207 Allison CRK Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,745	$0.94	110d	1	0.82mi
205 W Schulz St Unit Na Marion, TX	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,625	$1.35	10d	1	1.31mi
205 W Schulz St Marion, TX	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,625	$1.35	40d	1	1.31mi
217 E Schulz St Marion, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$850	$0.92	56d	1	1.44mi
738 Thea MDWS Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1575	$1,600	$1.02	64d	1	1.49mi
747 Thea MDWS Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,214	$1.19	64d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Mandatory HOAQuarterly HOA duesHOA transfer fee appliesCommunity amenities include pool and park/playground

Exterior

Utilities: Water system (SAWS)Sewer system (SAWS)Gas service by CPSElectricity by CPSGarbage service by Frontier
Home design: New construction by LennarApproximate age: 0
Construction: Slab foundationComposition roof
Exterior features: Siding exteriorCement fiber exterior

Interior

Kitchen: Kitchen dimensions 10 x 11Stove/RangeDishwasher
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bathBedroom 2: 10 x 10Bedroom 3: 10 x 10Bedroom 4: 10 x 10Primary bedroom dimensions 14 x 11
Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsPrimary bath with shower only and single vanity
Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric and natural gas heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features: Open floor plan1 living areaUtility room insideWalk-in closetsAll bedrooms on upper levelAll bedrooms downstairsLaundry roomLaundry on main level
Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry on main levelUtility room inside

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-25

days on market $160,000 Active 98 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $160,000 Active 97 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $160,000 Active 96 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $160,000 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-21

statusdays on market $160,000 Active 94 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $160,000 Price Change 93 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $160,000 Price Change 92 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $160,000 Price Change 91 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $160,000 Price Change 90 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $160,000 Price Change 89 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $160,000 Price Change 88 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $160,000 Price Change 87 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $160,000 Price Change 86 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $160,000 Price Change 85 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $160,000 Price Change 84 DOM
2026-08-10

price $160,000 Price Change 83 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $181,000 Price Change 83 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $181,000 Price Change 82 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $181,000 Price Change 81 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $181,000 Price Change 79 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $181,000 Price Change 78 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $181,000 Price Change 77 DOM
2026-08-03

pricestatusdays on market $181,000 Price Change 76 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $182,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $182,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $182,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $182,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $182,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $182,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $182,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $182,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $182,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $182,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $182,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $182,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $182,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $182,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $182,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $182,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $182,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $182,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $182,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $182,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $182,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $182,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-05

statusdays on market $182,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $182,000 Price Change 45 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $182,000 Price Change 44 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $182,000 Price Change 43 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $182,000 Price Change 42 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $20,568
− Mortgage interest: −$8,962
− Property taxes: −$2,400
− Insurance: −$800
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,645
− Management: −$1,645
− HOA: −$1,200
− Depreciation: −$4,655
Taxable loss: −$740

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$178
After-tax cash flow: $1,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,875–$20,625 screening

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan with a good condition exterior and interior. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can enhance convenience and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Norma Krueger El Middle Marion Middle F TX #613/1,662 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Marion H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Marion ISD
NCES district ID: 4829100
Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $58,465
Composite: 39.86/100
National rank: #3867
State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Marion

Score: 66/100
State rank: #614
US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Guadalupe · 196,854 people
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP): 6,907
Household income: $82,534
Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
Severe rent burden: 47% of renters

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 196,854 people
By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
Current HPI: 189.5796
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

2026-06-25 Price Changed $182,000 LERA
2026-06-23 Price Changed $182,999 LERA
2026-06-17 Price Changed $184,999 LERA
2026-06-09 Price Changed $189,999 LERA
2026-06-03 Price Changed $191,999 LERA
2026-05-30 Price Changed $192,999 LERA
2026-05-19 Listed $193,999 LERA

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…