434 Valley Ridge Dr · Runaway Bay, TX 76426

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured public records · 49 Days on market

Built 2023 0.25 ac lot $212/sqft · 37% above area Est $126k · 31% over ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

This move-in ready manufactured home sits on nearly a quarter acre and offers a rare combination of affordability, functionality, and financing flexibility. Permanently affixed and converted to real property, this home is FHA eligible—opening the door for more buyers to take advantage of homeownership. Inside, you’ll find a clean and efficient 2-bedroom, 2-bath layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The kitchen comes fully equipped with a refrigerator, range, microwave, and dishwasher, making it truly turnkey from day one. Step outside and enjoy both front and back covered decks—perfect for morning coffee or winding down in the evenings. The property also include

Key facts

• Covered decks
• Vinyl skirting
• Privacy fence

Tags

• COVERED DECKS
• PRIVACY FENCE
• VINYL SKIRTING
• KITCHEN FULLY EQUIPPED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms include Cash, FHA, VA Loan
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Co-op electric
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); One story; Property attached
• Construction: Built in 2023; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Covered patio/porch; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (11 x 13); Bedroom on level 1 (8 x 13)
• Flooring: Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; High-speed internet available; Open floorplan; One living area; One dining area; Total of 3 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($372/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.9% in Runaway Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#491 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bridgeport ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #356 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bridgeport El (523 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 338 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,958 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.81%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,196
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 30.75%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
139 Latigo Ct	0.34mi	2/2.0	869 (+11%)	11mo	$129,000	$148	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-9,155
• Equity at exit: $41,256

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $9,207
• Equity at exit: $44,550

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76426

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,340 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,118/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,300

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $78	+0% $31	+5% $-16	+10% $-62
Rent	-10% $-75	-5% $-22	+0% $31	+5% $84	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $73	base $31	+0.5pp $-12	+1.0pp $-55

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1210 Chestnut Ct Unit 1 Runaway Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1079	$1,800	$1.67	44d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $170,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    listed $170,000 Active 1160-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,118 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,901/yr (+$158/mo · 170.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,118
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,286
• − Management: −$1,286
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$596
• After-tax cash flow: $968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bridgeport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811340
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,866
• Composite: 35.51/100
• National rank: #4913
• State rank: #356 of 826 in TX

Livability — Runaway Bay

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #491
• US rank: #9730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,632
• Household income: $92,130
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 74.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.82%
• Current HPI: 417.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $170,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+58.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,118 · -22.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.