10051 Canada Rd · Birch Run, MI 48415

$169,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1960 1.09 ac lot $146/sqft · 24% below area Est $223k · 24% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The kind of property buyers wait for - a one-owner home on a full acre at the Canada & Dehmel corner, priced for someone ready to add their own updates while enjoying a location that's hard to beat. Just 1 mile from Birch Run and only 5 minutes to downtown Frankenmuth, in Birch Run Schools, this well-loved home sits on three lots totaling one acre with room to spread out inside and out. Original wood floors flow through the living room, where a double-sided fireplace connects to the cozy family room. The eat-in kitchen features oak cabinetry, parquet wood flooring, and stainless gas range and refrigerator. Three spacious bedrooms all feature hardwood floors, while the bathroom has been updated with a newer tub/shower insert and tile flooring. The family room slider opens to the patio and backyard space perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Outside, the 25x18' shed with loft, electricity, and lean-to offers excellent storage, workshop, or hobby space. Furnace and AC are approximately 10 years old, plus city water and natural gas. If you've been searching for solid bones, a fantastic location, and a home with character you can make your own, this is the opportunity.

Key facts

• Oak cabinetry
• One owner home
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• ONE OWNER HOME
• FULL ACRE
• DOUBLE SIDED FIREPLACE
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• OAK CABINETRY
• PARQUET WOOD FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Slab foundation; Built with a home warranty
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Corner lot; Paved road; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace in family room and living room; Crawl space foundation

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-961/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#341 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Birch Run Area Schools (rural): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #223 of 540 in MI (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Elementary School (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #735 of 1,397 statewide, top 53%, 667 students, 62% FRL); Marshall Greene Middle School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #215 of 493 statewide, top 45%, 548 students, 59% FRL); Birch Run High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #187 of 713 statewide, top 29%, 573 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 39% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $116,794 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.03%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,043
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -24.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-32,568
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-35,266
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48415

• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,168 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $553/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $-80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,269

Max offer price $154,858

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16	-5% $-32	+0% $-80	+5% $-128	+10% $-176
Rent	-10% $-172	-5% $-126	+0% $-80	+5% $-34	+10% $12
Rate	-1.0pp $5	-0.5pp $-37	base $-80	+0.5pp $-124	+1.0pp $-168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $169,000 Active 1206-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1190 chars)

   The kind of property buyers wait for - a one-owner home on a full acre at the Canada & Dehmel corner, priced for someone ready to add their own updates while enjoying a location that's hard to beat. Just 1 mile from Birch Run and only 5 minutes to downtown Frankenmuth, in Birch Run Schools, this well-loved home sits on three lots totaling one acre with room to spread out inside and out. Original wood floors flow through the living room, where a double-sided fireplace connects to the cozy family room. The eat-in kitchen features oak cabinetry, parquet wood flooring, and stainless gas range and refrigerator. Three spacious bedrooms all feature hardwood floors, while the bathroom has been updated with a newer tub/shower insert and tile flooring. The family room slider opens to the patio and backyard space perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Outside, the 25x18' shed with loft, electricity, and lean-to offers excellent storage, workshop, or hobby space. Furnace and AC are approximately 10 years old, plus city water and natural gas. If you've been searching for solid bones, a fantastic location, and a home with character you can make your own, this is the opportunity.

2. 2026-05-11
   listed $169,000 Active 1190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1190 chars)

   The kind of property buyers wait for - a one-owner home on a full acre at the Canada & Dehmel corner, priced for someone ready to add their own updates while enjoying a location that's hard to beat. Just 1 mile from Birch Run and only 5 minutes to downtown Frankenmuth, in Birch Run Schools, this well-loved home sits on three lots totaling one acre with room to spread out inside and out. Original wood floors flow through the living room, where a double-sided fireplace connects to the cozy family room. The eat-in kitchen features oak cabinetry, parquet wood flooring, and stainless gas range and refrigerator. Three spacious bedrooms all feature hardwood floors, while the bathroom has been updated with a newer tub/shower insert and tile flooring. The family room slider opens to the patio and backyard space perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Outside, the 25x18' shed with loft, electricity, and lean-to offers excellent storage, workshop, or hobby space. Furnace and AC are approximately 10 years old, plus city water and natural gas. If you've been searching for solid bones, a fantastic location, and a home with character you can make your own, this is the opportunity.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $553 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,578 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,025/yr (+$85/mo · 185.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$553
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,121
• − Management: −$1,121
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$4,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$962
• After-tax cash flow: $1/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birch Run Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2605820
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,432
• Composite: 33.54/100
• National rank: #5430
• State rank: #223 of 540 in MI

Livability — Birch Run

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #341
• US rank: #8715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,601

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.28%
• Current HPI: 203.5698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-11 Listed $169,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-11 Listed $169,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $553 · -67.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.