3420 W Jefferson St · Louisville, KY 40212

$64,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1913 4,500 sqft lot Est $78k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PROPERTY SOLD AS-IS

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Huge living area
• Central air

Tags

• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• VINYL FLOORING
• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• GAS FORCED-AIR FURNACE
• CENTRAL AIR
• HUGE LIVING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee; No monthly maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas service
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style home; One story; Built in 1913
• Construction: Shingle roof; Built in 1913; Above-grade finished area reported by listing agent
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Sidewalk along the lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms, both on the first floor; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; One HVAC unit
• Interior features: One fireplace on the main level; Cellar basement; Four total rooms (six rooms listed overall); Three closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $448 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 140 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $65k implies a 399% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,926 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.56%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $78,390
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
117 N 34th St	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,130 (-3%)	4mo	$34,000	$30	75
431 Amy Ave	0.29mi	2/1.0	1,223 (+4%)	5mo	$80,000	$65	75
127 N 39th St	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,197 (+2%)	8mo	$80,000	$67	69
3418 Del Park Ter	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,164 (-0%)	11mo	$133,000	$114	68
210 N 35th St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,119 (-4%)	7mo	$100,000	$89	68
3007 Duncan St	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,220 (+4%)	5mo	$45,000	$37	65
2809 Rowan St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,154 (-1%)	11mo	$37,000	$32	55
220 N 39th St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+6%)	4mo	$145,000	$117	53
212 N 37th St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,036 (-12%)	8mo	$121,000	$117	49
100 Boston Ct	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (-8%)	9mo	$35,000	$32	48
4149 W Muhammad Ali Blvd	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,327 (+13%)	3mo	$88,000	$66	36
4215 W Muhammad Ali Blvd	0.73mi	2/1.0	1,006 (-14%)	10mo	$120,000	$119	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $61,167
• Equity at exit: $58,467

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.41×
• Total profit: $152,777
• Equity at exit: $126,086

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40212

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,102 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $666/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $535

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 Hansbrough Pl Unit 101 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	924	$1,080	$1.17	23d	1	0.32mi
3421 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	994	$1,250	$1.26	23d	1	0.36mi
320 N 36th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	830	$1,225	$1.48	16d	1	0.45mi
219 N 37th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,150	$1.64	23d	1	0.45mi
2927 Rowan St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,205	$1.20	11d	1	0.48mi
106 N 40th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1325	$1,220	$0.92	3d	1	0.49mi
3819 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1108	$1,090	$0.98	20d	1	0.49mi
127 N 40th St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,570	$1.05	3d	1	0.50mi
4020 Larkwood Ave Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	1446	$785	$0.54	23d	1	0.53mi
127 Boston Ct Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	725	$1,100	$1.52	23d	1	0.55mi
247 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1083	$1,305	$1.20	19d	1	0.56mi
4141 W Market St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	771	$925	$1.20	3d	1	0.57mi
4143 W Market St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	23d	1	0.58mi
4018 Vermont Ave Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$699	$1.00	3d	1	0.59mi
302 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	984	$1,025	$1.04	16d	1	0.59mi
3901 Jewell Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1069	$1,140	$1.07	20d	1	0.61mi
628 S 39th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1448	$1,220	$0.84	16d	1	0.62mi
648 S 37th St #3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	807	$850	$1.05	23d	1	0.63mi
652 S 37th St #9 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,095	$1.02	23d	1	0.63mi
666 Eastlawn Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	936	$895	$0.96	16d	1	0.63mi
3910 Garfield Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	872	$1,035	$1.19	3d	1	0.66mi
313 N 42nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	3d	1	0.68mi
2925 Slevin St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	896	$775	$0.86	3d	1	0.68mi
2614 W Jefferson St Unit 2614-4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	740	$795	$1.07	23d	1	0.74mi
2623 Cedar St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	23d	1	0.74mi
701 Hazel St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	832	$800	$0.96	10d	1	0.75mi
644 S 40th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	2d	1	0.75mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	928	$850	$0.92	23d	1	0.77mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	928	$950	$1.02	23d	1	0.77mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	928	$850	$0.92	17d	1	0.77mi
2529 W Main St #2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,200	$0.85	23d	1	0.84mi
803 S 35th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1486	$1,350	$0.91	23d	1	0.85mi
2733 Chase Ct Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	16d	1	0.85mi
814 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,350	$1.22	3d	1	0.87mi
2508 W Main St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1327	$1,500	$1.13	23d	1	0.88mi
729 S 39th St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	23d	1	0.88mi
112 S 46th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	902	$1,200	$1.33	23d	1	0.91mi
714 S 40th St #2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	23d	1	0.91mi
212 N 25th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$895	$0.81	23d	1	0.93mi
430 S 24th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1288	$1,400	$1.09	23d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $64,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $64,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $64,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,900 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,900 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $666 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $666 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$666
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,058
• − Management: −$1,058
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $4,594
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,103
• After-tax cash flow: $4,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 14,661
• Household income: $35,753
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1148.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 37% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 293.2624
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.51%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+159.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $64,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-16 Rental Removed $1,050 APPFOLIO
• 2026-03-06 Listed for Rent $1,050 APPFOLIO
• 2026-01-16 Rental Removed $1,050 APPFOLIO
• 2026-01-13 Listed for Rent $1,050 APPFOLIO
• 2020-03-09 Sold (MLS) $13,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-02-04 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2020-02-01 Listed $17,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2008-02-26 Sold (MLS) $8,950 Metro Search MLS
• 2008-02-05 Listed $9,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-11-30 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2007-06-12 Listed $29,950 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-06-04 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2007-04-18 Listed $34,000 Metro Search MLS
• 1999-06-04 Sold (MLS) $34,000 Metro Search MLS
• 1999-04-10 Listed $41,900 Metro Search MLS
• 1998-10-26 Sold (MLS) $12,500 Metro Search MLS
• 1998-07-31 Listed $25,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $666 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.