624 Lily Way · Cosby, TN 37722

$200,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Other · 8 Days on market

Built 2023 1,742 sqft lot $83/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked inside the peaceful setting of Edge of the Smokies Campground, this one bedroom, one bath site built cabin offers a getaway that feels like home from the moment you step inside. Thoughtfully designed and lovingly built, every inch of this cabin reflects the care and attention that went into creating a comfortable retreat for relaxing weekends, seasonal stays, or extended visits to the Smokies. The sale includes the adjoining lot with its own carport, giving you extra space and flexibility that's hard to find. Best of all, the cabin comes fully furnished, making it easy to start enjoying it right away. Furnishings also include an airbed with frame for additional sleeping space, a larg

Key facts

• Carport
• Gas fireplace
• Loft areas

Tags

• CARPORT
• GAS FIREPLACE
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• LOFT AREAS
• IN-GROUND SWIMMING POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as residential single family (cabin subtype); Has additional parcel(s)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee (approximately $1,000/year); Association amenities include pool, playground, and trails; Association fee includes water and sewer

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 car space
• Utilities: Public water; Shared septic system; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Cabin-style single family residence; One level / single-story
• Construction: Above-grade finished living area approximately 980; Gravel road access
• Exterior features: Front porch; Private in-ground outdoor pool (community access noted)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Laundry located in the bathroom
• Interior features: Gas log fireplace in the living room (metal surround); 1 fireplace total; Washer and dryer (stacked option noted); Tankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (in-bathroom, stacked possible)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($44k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 28.4% vs local median 2.3% in Cosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cocke County (rural): math 21% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #112 of 139 in TN (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13 units permitted in Cocke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cocke County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $200k implies a 3900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.98%
• DSCR: 4.51
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.14×
• Total profit: $343,815
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.7%
• Equity multiple: 15.79×
• Total profit: $828,178
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37722

• Home prices YoY: 27.9%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,520 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,369
• Net cashflow: $3,686

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,855

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4949 Ledford Rd Unit 1051743P Cosby, TN	1.0	1.0	667	$6,520	$9.78	13d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥85°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,259
• − Management: −$6,259
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $43,704
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10,489
• After-tax cash flow: $33,739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cocke County
• NCES district ID: 4700750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $33,486
• Composite: 17.17/100
• National rank: #9109
• State rank: #112 of 139 in TN

Livability — Cosby

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cosby, TN
• Population (ZIP): 7,430

Population outlook (Cocke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,586 people
• By 2030: 32,394 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 29,727 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 27,075 · -19.4%
• By 2075: 22,590 · -32.7%
• By 2100: 19,643 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cocke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.2) · D 15.4% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -68.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.2 2020: R+64.8 2016: R+64.5 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 85.12%
• Current HPI: 390.2959
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+3900.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $200,000 LAAR
• 1998-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $100 · +20.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.