686 Sweetwater Rd · Wilkesboro, NC 28606

$348,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,278 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2024 1.87 ac lot Est $367k · 5% under $55/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the sought-after gated community of Majestic Mountain, this newly built 2024 residence at 686 Sweetwater Rd. Just minutes from W Kerr Scott Lake and premier mountain bike trails, this low-maintenance home is ideal for adventurers and serenity seekers alike. Immerse yourself in nature as sunlight floods the cathedral ceilings of this 3-bedroom, 2-bath haven. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, a farmhouse sink, and stainless steel appliances, perfect for culinary enthusiasts. Relax by the wood-burning fireplace or entertain on the expansive back deck overlooking 1.87 acres of natures beauty. The outdoor fire pit area offers another chance to enjoy the great outdoors. Located just 30 minutes from Boone and fabulous ski resorts, this property provides unparalleled access to year-round recreation. This home offers the option to be used as an Airbnb, providing an exciting investment opportunity. Main-level laundry.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Farmhouse sink
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• EXPANSIVE BACK DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $348k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-524 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.4% in Wilkesboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#166 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• Wilkes County Schools (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #59 of 178 in NC (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 134 units permitted in Wilkes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Wilkes County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,000 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.46%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $366,786
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1315 Ridge Run Rd	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-2%)	14mo	$358,000	$287	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $53,240
• Equity at exit: $203,976

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $187,161
• Equity at exit: $357,763

Cash invested: $97,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28606

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,825
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$435 /mo · $5,220/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-524

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,114

Max offer price $272,111

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,000
• Closing costs: $10,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
257 Morning Mist Dr Boomer, NC	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,450	$1.36	13d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $348,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $348,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $348,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $348,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $348,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $348,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $348,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $348,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $348,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $348,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,493
• − Property taxes: −$5,220
• − Insurance: −$1,740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,352
• − Management: −$2,352
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$10,124
• Taxable loss: −$12,541
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,010
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilkes County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704950
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3017
• State rank: #59 of 178 in NC

Livability — Wilkesboro

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #8892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 13,412
• Population (ZIP): 1,743

Population outlook (Wilkes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,349 people
• By 2030: 64,411 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 59,800 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 54,770 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 45,211 · -31.9%
• By 2100: 36,956 · -44.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilkes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.6) · D 19.9% · R 79.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -59.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.6 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+42.7 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.32%
• Current HPI: 318.0226
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $348,000 Triad MLS