2102 Sheas Fork Rd · McRoberts, KY 41835

$35,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · SingleFamily · 150 Days on market

Built 1920 0.52 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Great fixer upper on a mostly fenced half acre lot per Letcher County Ky PVA records. 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, 1,736 sq ft and built in 1920, per public records. Trash pickup.

Key facts

• Fenced half acre lot
• 0.52 acre lot
• Built 1920

Tags

• FENCED HALF ACRE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.52 acres (public records); Property is navigation friendly; on right on Sheas Fork Rd; Located in Letcher County; subdivision listed as Rural

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water available; Sewer: Other; Electricity available; Phone service available
• Home design: House; Two levels
• Construction: Other foundation; Other construction materials; Built area approximately 1,736
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Shingle roof

Interior

• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Wood flooring; No fireplace; Total of 3 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $594 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#486 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jenkins Independent (rural): math 23% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #164 of 173 in KY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Letcher County population projected at -39% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.53%
• DSCR: 4.54
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.29×
• Total profit: $32,206
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.85×
• Total profit: $76,961
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41835

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,128 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $376

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $618	-5% $606	+0% $594	+5% $582	+10% $570
Rent	-10% $505	-5% $549	+0% $594	+5% $638	+10% $683
Rate	-1.0pp $612	-0.5pp $603	base $594	+0.5pp $585	+1.0pp $576

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $35,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $35,000 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $35,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $35,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 129 DOM
17. 2025-12-31
    historical
18. 2025-09-25
    listed $35,000 Active
19. 2025-09-25
    listed $35,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,539
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$842
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,083
• − Management: −$1,083
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $7,028
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,687
• After-tax cash flow: $5,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jenkins Independent
• NCES district ID: 2103000
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $29,278
• Composite: 31.35/100
• National rank: #11225
• State rank: #164 of 173 in KY

Livability — McRoberts

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #486
• US rank: #24312

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McRoberts, KY
• City population: 314
• Population (ZIP): 314

Population outlook (Letcher County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,961 people
• By 2030: 18,236 · -8.6%
• By 2040: 14,928 · -25.2%
• By 2050: 12,156 · -39.1%
• By 2075: 7,638 · -61.7%
• By 2100: 5,470 · -72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Italian 8% Slovak 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Letcher

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.0) · D 17.3% · R 81.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.3pp · 2024: -64.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.0 2020: R+59.4 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+58.3 2008: R+33.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.79%
• Current HPI: 155.7635
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-25 Listed $35,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-25 Listed $35,000 ImagineMLS