6727 Pelican Ln · Rosenberg, TX 77417

$470,816

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,121 sqft · Land · 62 Days on market

Built 2025 0.50 ac lot $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Maximum upgrades for luxury living include a 3-car garage, primary closet extension, extended covered patio & more! This stunning single-story, three-bedroom, two-bath home with a study is designed for comfort & style. Enjoy an open-concept family room & island kitchen with a walk-in pantry, breakfast area & plenty of natural light. Elegant architectural details, such as tray ceilings, add a touch of sophistication throughout the home. Your living experience is enhanced with an extended covered patio where you can relax, entertain & enjoy the outdoors. With all these options, you’ll love how you can personalize this home to make it your own. With acre

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Acreage homesites
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FAMILY ROOM
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• EXTENDED COVERED PATIO
• ACREAGE HOMESITES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association: Blue Heron Estates Association; HOA fee $900 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 3-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Well water
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Single-level main living (First floor rooms listed); Full ownership
• Construction: Built in 2025; Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built by First America Homes
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Electric oven; Microwave; Built-in oven; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor); Office (First floor) — can function as a bedroom; Breakfast room/nook (First floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity in bathroom; Soaking tub and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen open to family room; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Combined tub/shower; Living/dining room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $471k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (32.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (39.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (39.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($443k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $286,513 (39.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.70%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $18,326
• Equity at exit: $242,940

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $126,013
• Equity at exit: $400,760

Cash invested: $131,828 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,865 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,469
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$589 /mo · $7,062/yr
• Insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $-1,065

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,214

Max offer price $316,673

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-740	-5% $-903	+0% $-1,065	+5% $-1,228	+10% $-1,391
Rent	-10% $-1,292	-5% $-1,178	+0% $-1,065	+5% $-952	+10% $-839
Rate	-1.0pp $-828	-0.5pp $-946	base $-1,065	+0.5pp $-1,187	+1.0pp $-1,311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,704
• Closing costs: $14,124
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
402 N 4th St Beasley, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,750	$2.21	0d	1	1.02mi
119 S 8th St Beasley, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,680	$1.00	26d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   price $470,816
3. 2026-02-24
   listed $481,816 Active
4. 2026-02-24
   historical
5. 2026-01-28
   price $481,816
6. 2026-01-26
   price $494,816
7. 2026-01-07
   price $496,817
8. 2025-12-10
   price $494,816
9. 2025-12-10
   listed $484,879 Active
10. 2025-12-10
    historical
11. 2025-09-19
    price $484,879
12. 2025-09-19
    listed $484,879 Active
13. 2025-09-19
    historical
14. 2025-06-10
    listed $479,879 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,382
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,373
• − Property taxes: −$7,062
• − Insurance: −$2,354
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,751
• − Management: −$2,751
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$13,696
• Taxable loss: −$21,505
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,161
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $470,816 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $481,816 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $481,816 HARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $494,816 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $496,817 HARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $494,816 HARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $484,879 HARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $484,879 HARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $484,879 HARMLS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $479,879 HARMLS