725 River St · Palmer Town, MA 01069

$124,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Other public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1950 4,791 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity to own lakefront property with sweeping views of Forest Lake — bring your vision and make it yours. Situated on a private road maintained by the town, this lot sits directly adjacent to the Forest Lake Wildlife Management Area, offering a serene natural setting with privacy and preserved open space that can never be built upon. Whether you're an investor, developer, or builder dreaming of a custom lakeside retreat, this is the blank canvas you've been waiting for. The property is primed for extensive rehabilitation or full reconstruction — ideal for a buyer ready to unlock its full potential in one of Palmer's most desirable natural settings. Offered as-is. Sept

Key facts

• Lakefront property
• Private road
• Preserved open space

Tags

• LAKEFRONT PROPERTY
• PRIVATE ROAD
• SERENE NATURAL SETTING
• PRESERVED OPEN SPACE
• CUSTOM LAKESIDE RETREAT
• EXTENSIVE REHABILITATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Electric: Other (see remarks)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Attached; Single-story (entry level not specified)
• Construction: Block foundation; Year built per public records (actual year not specified)
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Waterfront property on a lake/pond

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating present (type: Other); Cooling present (type: Other)
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $865 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 3.5% in Palmer Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#194 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Palmer (suburban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #256 of 302 in MA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 453 units permitted in Hampden County in 2024 (116 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hampden County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,124 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.67%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $34,876
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $101,412
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 01069

• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,606/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $865

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,065

Max offer price $124,999

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $936	-5% $901	+0% $865	+5% $830	+10% $795
Rent	-10% $695	-5% $780	+0% $865	+5% $951	+10% $1,036
Rate	-1.0pp $928	-0.5pp $897	base $865	+0.5pp $833	+1.0pp $800

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,999 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,999 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,999 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,999 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,999 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,999 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,999 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,999 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,999 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,999 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,999 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,999 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,999 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,999 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $124,999 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $124,999 New 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-27
    listed $124,999 New
18. 2022-11-22
    soldstatus $100,000
19. 1993-10-16
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,606 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,606 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,606
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,074
• − Management: −$2,074
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $8,908
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,138
• After-tax cash flow: $8,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palmer
• NCES district ID: 2509300
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,654
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7421
• State rank: #256 of 302 in MA

Livability — Palmer Town

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #194
• US rank: #14511

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmer Town, MA
• County: Hampden County · 230,965 people
• City population: 12,457
• Metro: Springfield, MA
• Population (ZIP): 8,821
• Household income: $80,190
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 212.0

Population outlook (Hampden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 485,646 people
• By 2030: 491,517 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 500,539 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 508,827 · +4.8%
• By 2075: 539,167 · +11.0%
• By 2100: 545,698 · +12.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 14% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hampden

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.4% · R 44.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: 25.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+17.7 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+25.4 2008: D+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.60%
• Current HPI: 185.7406
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Springfield, MA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+135.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $124,999 MLS PIN
• 2022-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1993-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,606 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.