3 Ponderosa Ln · Providence, PA 17560

$94,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 812 sqft · Manufactured public records · 213 Days on market

Built 2022

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home located just outside Quarryville in Ponderosa MHP. Enjoy everything this home has to offer such as an open floor plan, new lighting, custom walkway, newer appliances, and HVAC system. Typical monthly costs are $555.00. Call for more information. Minimum credit score of 600, pets are allowed. For park approval, please visit: www. compass. property

Key facts

• Built 2022
• Listed 213 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Solanco SD (rural): math 31% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #272 of 539 in PA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.07%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,421
• Equity at exit: $14,090

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $17,307
• Equity at exit: $8,171

Cash invested: $26,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17560

• Home prices YoY: -15.0%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,538 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $469/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,266

Max offer price $94,500

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $241	+0% $214	+5% $188	+10% $161
Rent	-10% $93	-5% $154	+0% $214	+5% $275	+10% $336
Rate	-1.0pp $262	-0.5pp $238	base $214	+0.5pp $190	+1.0pp $165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,625
• Closing costs: $2,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-01-06
   historical
4. 2026-01-06
   listed $94,500 Active
5. 2026-01-06
   price $94,500
6. 2025-10-21
   price $95,000
7. 2025-10-16
   price $98,000
8. 2025-09-16
   listed $100,000 Active
9. 2025-09-09
   historical $100,000
10. 2025-05-21
    soldstatus $100,000 Closed 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Beautiful home located just outside Quarryville in Ponderosa MHP. Enjoy everything this home has to offer such as an open floor plan, new lighting, custom walkway, newer appliances, and HVAC system. Typical monthly costs are $555.00. Call for more information. Minimum credit score of 600, pets are allowed. For park approval, please visit: www. compass. property

11. 2025-04-04
    status Pending 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Beautiful home located just outside Quarryville in Ponderosa MHP. Enjoy everything this home has to offer such as an open floor plan, new lighting, custom walkway, newer appliances, and HVAC system. Typical monthly costs are $555.00. Call for more information. Minimum credit score of 600, pets are allowed. For park approval, please visit: www. compass. property

12. 2025-03-03
    listed $115,000 Active 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Beautiful home located just outside Quarryville in Ponderosa MHP. Enjoy everything this home has to offer such as an open floor plan, new lighting, custom walkway, newer appliances, and HVAC system. Typical monthly costs are $555.00. Call for more information. Minimum credit score of 600, pets are allowed. For park approval, please visit: www. compass. property

13. 2025-02-28
    historical
14. 2025-01-05
    price $115,000
15. 2024-12-08
    price $120,000
16. 2024-11-08
    listed $125,000 Active
17. 2022-05-20
    soldstatus $68,900 Closed
18. 2022-04-23
    status Pending
19. 2022-04-09
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2022-04-07
    price $69,900
21. 2022-04-07
    status Active
22. 2022-03-31
    status Pending
23. 2022-03-31
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2022-03-05
    status Pending
25. 2022-01-21
    price $68,900
26. 2021-12-24
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $469 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $981 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$512/yr (+$43/mo · 109.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,293
• − Property taxes: −$469
• − Insurance: −$5,591
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,476
• − Management: −$1,476
• − Depreciation: −$2,749
• Taxable income: $1,400
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$336
• After-tax cash flow: $2,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Solanco SD
• NCES district ID: 4221810
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,326
• Composite: 38.41/100
• National rank: #4205
• State rank: #272 of 539 in PA

Livability — Providence

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,452

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Polish 6% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · German/W. Germanic 12% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.65%
• Current HPI: 270.262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+35.2% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $94,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $94,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $98,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-09 Coming Soon $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-21 Sold (MLS) $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-04 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-03 Listed $115,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-05 Price Changed $115,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-08 Price Changed $120,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-08 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-05-20 Sold (MLS) $68,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-04-23 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-04-09 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-04-07 Price Changed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-04-07 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-03-31 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-03-31 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-03-05 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-01-21 Price Changed $68,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-12-24 Listed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $469 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.