9836 Lorna Ln · Dellwood, MO 63136

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1950 7,627 sqft lot Est $62k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocking on this solid home in need of some repairs! Great potential for cash flow! Seller is not providing any inspections, warranties, repairs or disclosures. Property sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• 7,627 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 10.4% in Dellwood — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#239 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Koch Elem. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 303 students, 99% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $80k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,701 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.84%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $61,776
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9828 Lorna Ln	0.03mi	2/1.0	792 (0%)	2mo	$65,000	$82	97
10020 Dellridge Ln	0.25mi	2/1.0	816 (+3%)	1mo	$49,900	$61	82
1829 Chambers Rd	0.35mi	2/1.0	816 (+3%)	1mo	$34,900	$43	78
9606 Lifford Ct	0.48mi	2/1.0	800 (+1%)	1mo	$130,000	$163	75
10035 Clairmont Dr	0.36mi	2/1.0	735 (-7%)	1mo	$74,900	$102	70
9840 Green Valley Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0	816 (+3%)	2mo	$83,000	$102	66
1512 Kappel Dr	0.29mi	2/1.0	874 (+10%)	4mo	$50,000	$57	66
1679 Maldon Ln	0.62mi	2/1.0	816 (+3%)	4mo	$85,000	$104	63
10157 Winkler Dr	0.72mi	2/1.0	792 (0%)	4mo	$60,000	$76	63
324 Gage Dr	0.53mi	2/1.0	875 (+10%)	1mo	$68,000	$78	57
10038 Balboa Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+9%)	2mo	$49,900	$58	55
9604 Winkler Dr	0.65mi	2/1.0	720 (-9%)	2mo	$39,000	$54	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $43,811
• Equity at exit: $39,534

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $116,189
• Equity at exit: $63,893

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $667

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	0.06mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	0.06mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	0.07mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	0.10mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	12d	1	0.13mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	0.18mi
9750 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	0.21mi
9725 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,485	$1.63	43d	1	0.27mi
9717 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,323	$1.25	43d	1	0.39mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	23d	1	0.40mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	7d	1	0.53mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	43d	1	0.53mi
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	43d	1	0.55mi
1550 Northwinds Estates Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	877	$1,050	$1.20	43d	1	0.55mi
9547 Glen Owen Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	923	$985	$1.07	23d	1	0.62mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	3d	1	0.67mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	7d	1	0.68mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	43d	1	0.76mi
104 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	23d	1	0.76mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	23d	1	0.77mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	23d	1	0.77mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	43d	1	0.77mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	23d	1	0.85mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	23d	1	0.85mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	0.90mi
945 Edgehill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1110	$1,575	$1.42	43d	1	0.90mi
502 Averill Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	43d	1	0.97mi
338 La Motte Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	904	$1,150	$1.27	43d	1	1.02mi
227 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	43d	1	1.04mi
920 Hutton Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	43d	1	1.05mi
296 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	14d	1	1.07mi
307 Coppinger Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	17d	1	1.09mi
249 S Hartnett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,220	$1.27	23d	1	1.12mi
415 Ames Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,400	$1.72	43d	1	1.17mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	1.17mi
8908 Scottdale Ave Jennings, MO	2.0	1.0	790	$1,000	$1.27	43d	1	1.18mi
650 Robert Ave Ferguson, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,224	$1.50	43d	1	1.20mi
401 Millman Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,450	$1.44	16d	1	1.33mi
8893 Maya Ln Jennings, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	600	$930	$1.55	23d	6	1.35mi
6188 Dupree Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	972	$1,300	$1.34	43d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $79,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    status Pending
16. 2026-04-14
    listed $80,000 Active
17. 2026-04-13
    price $80,000
18. 2026-04-13
    historical $75,000
19. 2024-07-10
    soldstatus Closed 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Opportunity knocking on this solid home in need of some repairs! Great potential for cash flow! Seller is not providing any inspections, warranties, repairs or disclosures. Property sold AS-IS.

20. 2024-06-19
    status Pending 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Opportunity knocking on this solid home in need of some repairs! Great potential for cash flow! Seller is not providing any inspections, warranties, repairs or disclosures. Property sold AS-IS.

21. 2024-06-14
    status Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Opportunity knocking on this solid home in need of some repairs! Great potential for cash flow! Seller is not providing any inspections, warranties, repairs or disclosures. Property sold AS-IS.

22. 2024-06-04
    historical Active Under Contract 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Opportunity knocking on this solid home in need of some repairs! Great potential for cash flow! Seller is not providing any inspections, warranties, repairs or disclosures. Property sold AS-IS.

23. 2024-05-20
    listed $29,000 Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Opportunity knocking on this solid home in need of some repairs! Great potential for cash flow! Seller is not providing any inspections, warranties, repairs or disclosures. Property sold AS-IS.

24. 2021-06-03
    soldstatus $40,000
25. 2013-06-13
    soldstatus $16,250
26. 2013-06-12
    soldstatus $16,250
27. 2013-06-07
    soldstatus 61-char remark

    Show marketing remark (61 chars)

    This 2 bedroom slab is clean and fresh and ready for a buyer.

28. 2013-05-24
    listed $14,000 61-char remark

    Show marketing remark (61 chars)

    This 2 bedroom slab is clean and fresh and ready for a buyer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $4,299
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,032
• After-tax cash flow: $4,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Dellwood

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #239
• US rank: #11618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+471.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $80,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $80,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Coming Soon $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-10 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-19 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-14 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-04 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-20 Listed $29,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2013-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $16,250 Public Records
• 2013-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $16,250 Public Records
• 2013-06-07 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-24 Listed $14,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $898 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.