959 S East Rd · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$240,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1975 5,000 sqft lot Est $341k · 30% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Coastal cottage in the heart of Crystal Beach, ideally located just a short walk or golf cart ride from the beach. Situated on one of the higher elevations on the Bolivar Peninsula, this beach home offers the perfect blend of comfort, character, and investment potential. The open living, dining, and kitchen area creates an inviting space for relaxing after a day at the beach. With multiple sleeping areas and a functional layout, this property is well-suited for full-time living, weekend getaways, or vacation rental use. Enjoy the large upper deck for outdoor dining and coastal breezes, plus the covered ground-level area for entertaining, parking, storage, or just relaxing. You will also fin

Key facts

• Large upper deck
• Coastal cottage
• 5,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• COASTAL COTTAGE
• OPEN LIVING DINING KITCHEN
• LARGE UPPER DECK
• COVERED GROUND LEVEL AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking; Boat parking; Driveway; No covered garage indicated
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Has a view
• Construction: Built in 1975; Cement siding; Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Balcony; Deck; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Views; Side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Free-standing range; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar / open to family area
• Bedrooms: Bedroom (First floor) 14 x 10; Bedroom (First floor) 14 x 17; Total of 3 rooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window-unit heating; Window-unit cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Balcony; Kitchen/family room combo; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Combined living and dining area; Living room (33 x 14)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (14.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $206k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 770 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,257 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.54%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $340,680
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
979 S Selwyn Rd	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,055 (+3%)	7mo	$336,880	$319	83
1013 Highway 87	0.33mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,008 (-1%)	5mo	$299,900	$298	73
975 S Jack Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+6%)	5mo	$369,900	$343	67
959 S Jack Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,014 (-1%)	18mo	$350,000	$345	66
860 Main St	0.34mi	2/2.0	953 (-7%)	16mo	$285,000	$299	58
865 Main St	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+10%)	12mo	$303,000	$271	58
1069 N Sage Rd	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,112 (+9%)	12mo	$239,000	$215	56
1134 Mayes Rd	0.40mi	2/1.0	924 (-9%)	19mo	$400,000	$433	48
954 Palmetto Dr	0.62mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,080 (+6%)	10mo	$199,000	$184	48
948 Holiday	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,092 (+7%)	10mo	$370,000	$339	46
955 Townsend Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,134 (+11%)	20mo	$379,000	$334	40
700 Palmetto Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,160 (+14%)	1mo	$474,900	$409	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-50,601
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-57,879
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 770
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,711 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,657/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,952

Max offer price $206,257

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-55	-5% $-123	+0% $-191	+5% $-259	+10% $-327
Rent	-10% $-405	-5% $-298	+0% $-191	+5% $-84	+10% $23
Rate	-1.0pp $-70	-0.5pp $-130	base $-191	+0.5pp $-253	+1.0pp $-316

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
970 S Jacks Rd Unit 1223248P Crystal Beach, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,870	$2.30	15d	1	0.19mi
863 S Selwyn Rd Unit 1558167P Crystal Beach, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$2,812	$2.07	1d	1	0.19mi
1166 N Jacks Rd Port Bolivar, TX	2.0	1.0	918	$2,050	$2.23	3d	1	0.55mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $240,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,657 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$735/yr (+$61/mo · 20.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,657
• − Insurance: −$9,228
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,602
• − Management: −$2,602
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$5,988
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,437
• After-tax cash flow: $-855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 2,362

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-23 Rental Removed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2025-02-11 Listed for Rent $1,850 HARMLS
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $284,800 HARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 1994-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,657 · +12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.