1415 Cinnamon Hills Dr · St. Peters, MO 63303

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 886 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1974 9,178 sqft lot $198/sqft · 34% below area Est $263k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss your chance at this amazing value! Come see this home that is just perfect as an equity builder or for someone that wants to put their own touches on their new home or the local investor waiting for their next great rental property project! Seller is ready to turn this over to a new owner and let them make it the envy of the street! Great functional floorplan in a quiet neighborhood. Nearly all the needs are cosmetic. The potential is abundant here. All it needs is your vision! Schedule your private showing right away before the sign reads SOLD. This home is being sold in AS IS condition. Seller will not provide any inspections or agree to any repairs. All offers must be written

Key facts

• 9,178 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 886 (assessor)
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (single phase); Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Corner lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $160 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (2.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.2% in St. Peters — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Francis Howell R-III (suburban): math 53% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #11 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Becky-David Elem. (math 62% / reading 71%, grade B+, #57 of 1,115 statewide, top 5%, 849 students, 13% FRL); Francis Howell North High (math 40% / reading 55%, grade D, #154 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 1,679 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 200 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $103k; list at $175k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,899 (2.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.93%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,351
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -33.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1411 Caulks Hill Rd	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-2%)	6mo	$109,000	$126	70
3606 Westport Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-2%)	22mo	$255,000	$295	69
1471 Summergate Pkwy Unit Q	0.14mi	2/1.0	804 (-9%)	15mo	$149,900	$186	66
3640 Chervil Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	864 (-2%)	18mo	$277,000	$321	63
3620 Chervil Dr	0.15mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,008 (+14%)	3mo	$200,000	$198	61
1133 Caulks Hill Rd	0.62mi	2/1.0	912 (+3%)	14mo	$265,000	$291	54
63 David Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-2%)	13mo	$225,000	$260	46
3601 Thyme Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (+14%)	19mo	$285,000	$283	41
3653 Thyme Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,008 (+14%)	17mo	$294,900	$293	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-17,672
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-291
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63303

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,699 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,294/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,496

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $259	-5% $210	+0% $160	+5% $111	+10% $61
Rent	-10% $26	-5% $93	+0% $160	+5% $227	+10% $295
Rate	-1.0pp $249	-0.5pp $205	base $160	+0.5pp $115	+1.0pp $69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Rose Dr St Charles, MO	2.0	1.5	860	$1,850	$2.15	8d	1	0.37mi
531 Saravalle Dr Saint Peters, MO	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,650	$1.63	44d	1	0.83mi
1000 Jasper Ln St Peters, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$2,000	$1.91	2d	12	0.85mi
100 Broadridge Dr St Peters, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$1,648	$1.95	2d	10	0.95mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $175,000 Active 755-char remark
2. 2005-10-03
   soldstatus $103,000
3. 1996-07-01
   soldstatus
4. 1995-08-01
   soldstatus $69,016
5. 1992-09-01
   soldstatus $64,900
6. 1990-07-01
   soldstatus $56,900
7. 1990-02-01
   soldstatus
8. 1990-02-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,294 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,294 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,294
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,631
• − Management: −$1,631
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$937
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$225
• After-tax cash flow: $2,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Francis Howell R-III
• NCES district ID: 2928950
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $79,768
• Composite: 52.23/100
• National rank: #1602
• State rank: #11 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Peters

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 74,876
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 46,089
• Household income: $99,138
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1026.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 6% Asian 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.84%
• Current HPI: 224.7406
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+207.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $175,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $69,016 Public Records
• 1992-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $64,900 Public Records
• 1990-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $56,900 Public Records
• 1990-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,294 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.