4609 10th Street Ct E · Ellenton, FL 34222

$85,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 364 Days on market

Built 1983 3,790 sqft lot Est $119k · 28% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This nice 2 bedroom 2 bath home is on a large corner lot with lots of fruit trees. It has a vinyl screen room with a large jacuzzi on it. It is turnkey furnished and is in a no pet retirement community.

Key facts

• Shuffleboard courts
• Community pool
• Huge porch

Tags

• HUGE PORCH
• COMMUNITY POOL
• SHUFFLEBOARD COURTS
• BOCCE BALL
• WEIGHT ROOM
• EASY ACCESS TO INTERSTATE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total monthly fees $50; Total annual fees $600; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $50; Association approval required; Tidevue Estates Civic Organization; Community clubhouse; Community fitness center; Community pool; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; North-facing entry
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Metal siding; Membrane roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as completed condition
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Asphalt road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.3% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blackburn Elementary School (math 62% / reading 42%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 551 students, 78% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $86k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,592 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.51%
• DSCR: 4.18
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,232
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1204 43rd Ave E	0.23mi	2/2.0	903 (+4%)	4mo	$73,500	$81	78
4603 10th Street Ct E	0.04mi	2/1.5	780 (-10%)	3mo	$108,000	$138	77
1005 45th Ave E	0.13mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	4mo	$100,000	$104	72
4212 13th St E	0.29mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	2mo	$175,000	$182	66
1416 41st Ave E	0.48mi	2/2.0	800 (-7%)	3mo	$160,000	$200	62
1532 47th Avenue Dr E	0.39mi	2/1.0	784 (-9%)	1mo	$129,900	$166	62
1224 41st Avenue Dr E	0.40mi	2/2.0	963 (+12%)	4mo	$125,000	$130	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $73,259
• Equity at exit: $12,808

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.33×
• Total profit: $176,392
• Equity at exit: $7,427

Cash invested: $24,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,654 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$450
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,525/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $1,367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $924

Max offer price $85,900

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,415	-5% $1,391	+0% $1,367	+5% $1,343	+10% $1,318
Rent	-10% $1,157	-5% $1,262	+0% $1,367	+5% $1,472	+10% $1,576
Rate	-1.0pp $1,410	-0.5pp $1,389	base $1,367	+0.5pp $1,345	+1.0pp $1,322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,475
• Closing costs: $2,577
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5021 US Highway 301 N Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.5	861	$3,900	$4.53	5d	1	0.31mi
4403 7th St E #4 Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1079	$2,700	$2.50	25d	1	0.38mi
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,498	$2.45	5d	15	0.48mi
1651 36th Ave E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,397	$1.74	0d	9	0.86mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,357	$2.47	0d	66	1.14mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,234	$1.94	5d	37	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $85,900 Pending 364 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,900 Active 363 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $85,900 Active 359 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,900 Active 358 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,900 Active 357 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,900 Active 356 DOM
7. 2026-05-02
   price $85,900
8. 2026-04-09
   price $87,900
9. 2026-03-12
   price $89,900
10. 2026-02-20
    price $95,000
11. 2026-01-16
    price $99,000
12. 2025-12-10
    status Active
13. 2025-11-16
    status Pending
14. 2025-09-09
    price $99,500
15. 2025-06-10
    price $109,500
16. 2025-05-16
    listed $115,000 Active
17. 2007-05-04
    soldstatus $56,000
18. 2004-12-17
    soldstatus $53,000 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    This nice 2 bedroom 2 bath home is on a large corner lot with lots of fruit trees. It has a vinyl screen room with a large jacuzzi on it. It is turnkey furnished and is in a no pet retirement community.

19. 2004-11-08
    listed $53,000 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    This nice 2 bedroom 2 bath home is on a large corner lot with lots of fruit trees. It has a vinyl screen room with a large jacuzzi on it. It is turnkey furnished and is in a no pet retirement community.

20. 1983-02-01
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,525 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,525 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,812
• − Property taxes: −$1,525
• − Insurance: −$1,227
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,548
• − Management: −$2,548
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$2,499
• Taxable income: $16,089
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,861
• After-tax cash flow: $12,541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+854.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $85,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $87,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $99,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $109,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-16 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-17 Sold (MLS) $53,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-08 Listed $53,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1983-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,525 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.