371 Cumberland Rd · Pine Harbor, TX 75657

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 368 Days on market

Built 1981 $4/mo HOA ↓ 59% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLER SAYS “GET IT SOLD !” PRICE REDUCED BY 10K — THIS sturdy 2bedroom 1 bath home located a short distance from the lake is priced to sell . It could use fresh paint , some wood work on the exterior , freshening up and modern aesthetics — it is priced accordingly. This would be a great spot for a couple or a single guy who wants to be close to the lake. It could also be a great weekender . He large lot is fully fenced . There is no wasted space in this layout , it flows well - from the circular walk through kitchen to the vaulted high ceilings in the living area - this home may be small but it is also cozy , quiet and could be brought back to life with a a little elbow grease and handyman work. Worth seeing at this price !

Key facts

• High ceiling
• Fresh coat of paint
• Fenced yard

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• HIGH CEILING
• FRESH COAT OF PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($860 rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,494 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Jefferson ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #689 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 368 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (59%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 368 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.15%
• DSCR: 3.41
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $22,503
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.70×
• Total profit: $55,903
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75657

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $860 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $422/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $300

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $462	-5% $452	+0% $442	+5% $432	+10% $422
Rent	-10% $374	-5% $408	+0% $442	+5% $476	+10% $510
Rate	-1.0pp $460	-0.5pp $451	base $442	+0.5pp $433	+1.0pp $424

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 759-char remark

   Show marketing remark (759 chars)

   SELLER SAYS “GET IT SOLD !” PRICE REDUCED BY 10K — THIS sturdy 2bedroom 1 bath home located a short distance from the lake is priced to sell . It could use fresh paint , some wood work on the exterior , freshening up and modern aesthetics — it is priced accordingly. This would be a great spot for a couple or a single guy who wants to be close to the lake. It could also be a great weekender . He large lot is fully fenced . There is no wasted space in this layout , it flows well - from the circular walk through kitchen to the vaulted high ceilings in the living area - this home may be small but it is also cozy , quiet and could be brought back to life with a a little elbow grease and handyman work. Worth seeing at this price !

2. 2026-05-05
   price $35,000 759-char remark

   Show marketing remark (759 chars)

   SELLER SAYS “GET IT SOLD !” PRICE REDUCED BY 10K — THIS sturdy 2bedroom 1 bath home located a short distance from the lake is priced to sell . It could use fresh paint , some wood work on the exterior , freshening up and modern aesthetics — it is priced accordingly. This would be a great spot for a couple or a single guy who wants to be close to the lake. It could also be a great weekender . He large lot is fully fenced . There is no wasted space in this layout , it flows well - from the circular walk through kitchen to the vaulted high ceilings in the living area - this home may be small but it is also cozy , quiet and could be brought back to life with a a little elbow grease and handyman work. Worth seeing at this price !

3. 2026-03-25
   price $40,000 759-char remark

   Show marketing remark (759 chars)

   SELLER SAYS “GET IT SOLD !” PRICE REDUCED BY 10K — THIS sturdy 2bedroom 1 bath home located a short distance from the lake is priced to sell . It could use fresh paint , some wood work on the exterior , freshening up and modern aesthetics — it is priced accordingly. This would be a great spot for a couple or a single guy who wants to be close to the lake. It could also be a great weekender . He large lot is fully fenced . There is no wasted space in this layout , it flows well - from the circular walk through kitchen to the vaulted high ceilings in the living area - this home may be small but it is also cozy , quiet and could be brought back to life with a a little elbow grease and handyman work. Worth seeing at this price !

4. 2026-02-20
   price $45,000 759-char remark

   Show marketing remark (759 chars)

   SELLER SAYS “GET IT SOLD !” PRICE REDUCED BY 10K — THIS sturdy 2bedroom 1 bath home located a short distance from the lake is priced to sell . It could use fresh paint , some wood work on the exterior , freshening up and modern aesthetics — it is priced accordingly. This would be a great spot for a couple or a single guy who wants to be close to the lake. It could also be a great weekender . He large lot is fully fenced . There is no wasted space in this layout , it flows well - from the circular walk through kitchen to the vaulted high ceilings in the living area - this home may be small but it is also cozy , quiet and could be brought back to life with a a little elbow grease and handyman work. Worth seeing at this price !

5. 2026-01-15
   status Active 759-char remark

   Show marketing remark (759 chars)

   SELLER SAYS “GET IT SOLD !” PRICE REDUCED BY 10K — THIS sturdy 2bedroom 1 bath home located a short distance from the lake is priced to sell . It could use fresh paint , some wood work on the exterior , freshening up and modern aesthetics — it is priced accordingly. This would be a great spot for a couple or a single guy who wants to be close to the lake. It could also be a great weekender . He large lot is fully fenced . There is no wasted space in this layout , it flows well - from the circular walk through kitchen to the vaulted high ceilings in the living area - this home may be small but it is also cozy , quiet and could be brought back to life with a a little elbow grease and handyman work. Worth seeing at this price !

6. 2026-01-15
   price $50,000 759-char remark

   Show marketing remark (759 chars)

   SELLER SAYS “GET IT SOLD !” PRICE REDUCED BY 10K — THIS sturdy 2bedroom 1 bath home located a short distance from the lake is priced to sell . It could use fresh paint , some wood work on the exterior , freshening up and modern aesthetics — it is priced accordingly. This would be a great spot for a couple or a single guy who wants to be close to the lake. It could also be a great weekender . He large lot is fully fenced . There is no wasted space in this layout , it flows well - from the circular walk through kitchen to the vaulted high ceilings in the living area - this home may be small but it is also cozy , quiet and could be brought back to life with a a little elbow grease and handyman work. Worth seeing at this price !

7. 2025-10-28
   price $60,000 759-char remark

   Show marketing remark (759 chars)

   SELLER SAYS “GET IT SOLD !” PRICE REDUCED BY 10K — THIS sturdy 2bedroom 1 bath home located a short distance from the lake is priced to sell . It could use fresh paint , some wood work on the exterior , freshening up and modern aesthetics — it is priced accordingly. This would be a great spot for a couple or a single guy who wants to be close to the lake. It could also be a great weekender . He large lot is fully fenced . There is no wasted space in this layout , it flows well - from the circular walk through kitchen to the vaulted high ceilings in the living area - this home may be small but it is also cozy , quiet and could be brought back to life with a a little elbow grease and handyman work. Worth seeing at this price !

8. 2025-09-01
   status Active 759-char remark

   Show marketing remark (759 chars)

   SELLER SAYS “GET IT SOLD !” PRICE REDUCED BY 10K — THIS sturdy 2bedroom 1 bath home located a short distance from the lake is priced to sell . It could use fresh paint , some wood work on the exterior , freshening up and modern aesthetics — it is priced accordingly. This would be a great spot for a couple or a single guy who wants to be close to the lake. It could also be a great weekender . He large lot is fully fenced . There is no wasted space in this layout , it flows well - from the circular walk through kitchen to the vaulted high ceilings in the living area - this home may be small but it is also cozy , quiet and could be brought back to life with a a little elbow grease and handyman work. Worth seeing at this price !

9. 2025-08-27
   price $70,000 759-char remark

   Show marketing remark (759 chars)

   SELLER SAYS “GET IT SOLD !” PRICE REDUCED BY 10K — THIS sturdy 2bedroom 1 bath home located a short distance from the lake is priced to sell . It could use fresh paint , some wood work on the exterior , freshening up and modern aesthetics — it is priced accordingly. This would be a great spot for a couple or a single guy who wants to be close to the lake. It could also be a great weekender . He large lot is fully fenced . There is no wasted space in this layout , it flows well - from the circular walk through kitchen to the vaulted high ceilings in the living area - this home may be small but it is also cozy , quiet and could be brought back to life with a a little elbow grease and handyman work. Worth seeing at this price !

10. 2025-03-25
    listed $85,000 Active 759-char remark

    Show marketing remark (759 chars)

    SELLER SAYS “GET IT SOLD !” PRICE REDUCED BY 10K — THIS sturdy 2bedroom 1 bath home located a short distance from the lake is priced to sell . It could use fresh paint , some wood work on the exterior , freshening up and modern aesthetics — it is priced accordingly. This would be a great spot for a couple or a single guy who wants to be close to the lake. It could also be a great weekender . He large lot is fully fenced . There is no wasted space in this layout , it flows well - from the circular walk through kitchen to the vaulted high ceilings in the living area - this home may be small but it is also cozy , quiet and could be brought back to life with a a little elbow grease and handyman work. Worth seeing at this price !

11. 2010-05-28
    soldstatus
12. 2004-11-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $422 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $640 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$219/yr (+$18/mo · 51.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$422
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$826
• − Management: −$826
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $5,046
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,211
• After-tax cash flow: $4,095/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824730
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,504
• Composite: 22.93/100
• National rank: #7992
• State rank: #689 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pine Harbor

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1494
• US rank: #25521

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Harbor, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,842

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,339 people
• By 2030: 8,881 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 8,044 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 7,449 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 6,638 · -28.9%
• By 2100: 5,871 · -37.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 22% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.5) · D 23.4% · R 75.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.8pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -52.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+43.1 2012: R+29.1 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.60%
• Current HPI: 126.2671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-58.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — LAAR
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $35,000 LAAR
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $40,000 LAAR
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $45,000 LAAR
• 2026-01-15 Relisted — LAAR
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $50,000 LAAR
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $60,000 LAAR
• 2025-09-01 Relisted — LAAR
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $70,000 LAAR
• 2025-03-25 Listed $85,000 LAAR
• 2010-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-11-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $422 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.