204 Bay Ct · Campbell, FL 34758

$205,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1982 7,841 sqft lot Est $213k · at est. $163/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home must have the best location in the community, it sits back on the lot, in a cull-de-sac with views of the pond, and on the far side of the pond the Community Club House. Lots to do in this community from swimming in the community pool, tennis, shuffle board, billiards in the club house, even a private library! The property is well cared for and partly furnished, although the seller will remove it if the buyer wishes to purchase the property unfurnished. On the rear of the property is a perfect Florida room, light, bright and cool, overlooks the water and hidden from the immediate neighbors so nice and private for those lazy days or wind down evenings. The entrance to the property is on the side of the house under the carport so you can drive up to the entrance, giving protection to the car from the heat of the sun and the odd afternoon shower. The entrance takes you into a great room with a fully equipped kitchen with breakfast bar, separate dining room and large living room that has spectacular views of the water behind the house through the patio doors that lead to the Florida room. All the bedrooms and bathrooms are at the front of the house and outside in the carport is the laundry room and storage area. And the HOA is only $69 per month and includes all the community club house facilities and lawn care! It even has a private security service. This one has to go to the top of your short list!

Key facts

• Private backyard
• 7,841 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• HIGHLY DESIRABLE COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.18 acres (approx. 65 x 120); Pond view; Living area about 1,144 square feet
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $63; additional fee listed $100 monthly); Association amenities: Fitness center, Playground, Pool; Association names: Sentry Management Company; Association of Poincianna Village; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; South-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane and shingle roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation; Built as a manufactured home (double wide)
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Sliding doors; Paved access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No significant built-in interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.2% in Campbell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#848 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 604 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $205k implies a 273% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.99%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,784
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2601 Salina Way	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+1%)	11mo	$214,000	$186	83
2633 Mcdaniel Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-6%)	9mo	$203,000	$188	74
2612 Mcdaniel Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	10mo	$149,500	$142	70
2711 Cranmoor Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (+4%)	8mo	$200,000	$168	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-19,550
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-11,529
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34758

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 604
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,150 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,065/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$163
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,788

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1918 Ancestry Trl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,200	$1.54	24d	1	0.83mi
4301 Twisted Twig Bnd Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1267	$2,300	$1.82	24d	1	1.12mi
4207 Mountain Laurel Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,600	$2.06	24d	1	1.20mi
4327 Babbling Brook Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,000	$1.39	3d	1	1.24mi
1814 Lindens St Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,200	$1.50	24d	1	1.25mi
4273 Babbling Brook Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,000	$1.39	20d	1	1.28mi
4273 Babbling Brook Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,000	$1.39	4d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $163 · $1,956/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $205,000 Pending 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $205,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $205,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-03-05
    price $205,000
14. 2026-02-17
    price $210,000
15. 2026-01-29
    listed $215,000 Active
16. 2015-05-18
    soldstatus $55,000
17. 2015-05-14
    soldstatus $55,000 Sold 1431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1431 chars)

    This home must have the best location in the community, it sits back on the lot, in a cull-de-sac with views of the pond, and on the far side of the pond the Community Club House. Lots to do in this community from swimming in the community pool, tennis, shuffle board, billiards in the club house, even a private library! The property is well cared for and partly furnished, although the seller will remove it if the buyer wishes to purchase the property unfurnished. On the rear of the property is a perfect Florida room, light, bright and cool, overlooks the water and hidden from the immediate neighbors so nice and private for those lazy days or wind down evenings. The entrance to the property is on the side of the house under the carport so you can drive up to the entrance, giving protection to the car from the heat of the sun and the odd afternoon shower. The entrance takes you into a great room with a fully equipped kitchen with breakfast bar, separate dining room and large living room that has spectacular views of the water behind the house through the patio doors that lead to the Florida room. All the bedrooms and bathrooms are at the front of the house and outside in the carport is the laundry room and storage area. And the HOA is only $69 per month and includes all the community club house facilities and lawn care! It even has a private security service. This one has to go to the top of your short list!

18. 2015-02-05
    status Pending 1431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1431 chars)

    This home must have the best location in the community, it sits back on the lot, in a cull-de-sac with views of the pond, and on the far side of the pond the Community Club House. Lots to do in this community from swimming in the community pool, tennis, shuffle board, billiards in the club house, even a private library! The property is well cared for and partly furnished, although the seller will remove it if the buyer wishes to purchase the property unfurnished. On the rear of the property is a perfect Florida room, light, bright and cool, overlooks the water and hidden from the immediate neighbors so nice and private for those lazy days or wind down evenings. The entrance to the property is on the side of the house under the carport so you can drive up to the entrance, giving protection to the car from the heat of the sun and the odd afternoon shower. The entrance takes you into a great room with a fully equipped kitchen with breakfast bar, separate dining room and large living room that has spectacular views of the water behind the house through the patio doors that lead to the Florida room. All the bedrooms and bathrooms are at the front of the house and outside in the carport is the laundry room and storage area. And the HOA is only $69 per month and includes all the community club house facilities and lawn care! It even has a private security service. This one has to go to the top of your short list!

19. 2014-11-07
    status Active 1431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1431 chars)

    This home must have the best location in the community, it sits back on the lot, in a cull-de-sac with views of the pond, and on the far side of the pond the Community Club House. Lots to do in this community from swimming in the community pool, tennis, shuffle board, billiards in the club house, even a private library! The property is well cared for and partly furnished, although the seller will remove it if the buyer wishes to purchase the property unfurnished. On the rear of the property is a perfect Florida room, light, bright and cool, overlooks the water and hidden from the immediate neighbors so nice and private for those lazy days or wind down evenings. The entrance to the property is on the side of the house under the carport so you can drive up to the entrance, giving protection to the car from the heat of the sun and the odd afternoon shower. The entrance takes you into a great room with a fully equipped kitchen with breakfast bar, separate dining room and large living room that has spectacular views of the water behind the house through the patio doors that lead to the Florida room. All the bedrooms and bathrooms are at the front of the house and outside in the carport is the laundry room and storage area. And the HOA is only $69 per month and includes all the community club house facilities and lawn care! It even has a private security service. This one has to go to the top of your short list!

20. 2014-10-07
    status Pending 1431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1431 chars)

    This home must have the best location in the community, it sits back on the lot, in a cull-de-sac with views of the pond, and on the far side of the pond the Community Club House. Lots to do in this community from swimming in the community pool, tennis, shuffle board, billiards in the club house, even a private library! The property is well cared for and partly furnished, although the seller will remove it if the buyer wishes to purchase the property unfurnished. On the rear of the property is a perfect Florida room, light, bright and cool, overlooks the water and hidden from the immediate neighbors so nice and private for those lazy days or wind down evenings. The entrance to the property is on the side of the house under the carport so you can drive up to the entrance, giving protection to the car from the heat of the sun and the odd afternoon shower. The entrance takes you into a great room with a fully equipped kitchen with breakfast bar, separate dining room and large living room that has spectacular views of the water behind the house through the patio doors that lead to the Florida room. All the bedrooms and bathrooms are at the front of the house and outside in the carport is the laundry room and storage area. And the HOA is only $69 per month and includes all the community club house facilities and lawn care! It even has a private security service. This one has to go to the top of your short list!

21. 2014-09-04
    listed $75,327 Active 1431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1431 chars)

    This home must have the best location in the community, it sits back on the lot, in a cull-de-sac with views of the pond, and on the far side of the pond the Community Club House. Lots to do in this community from swimming in the community pool, tennis, shuffle board, billiards in the club house, even a private library! The property is well cared for and partly furnished, although the seller will remove it if the buyer wishes to purchase the property unfurnished. On the rear of the property is a perfect Florida room, light, bright and cool, overlooks the water and hidden from the immediate neighbors so nice and private for those lazy days or wind down evenings. The entrance to the property is on the side of the house under the carport so you can drive up to the entrance, giving protection to the car from the heat of the sun and the odd afternoon shower. The entrance takes you into a great room with a fully equipped kitchen with breakfast bar, separate dining room and large living room that has spectacular views of the water behind the house through the patio doors that lead to the Florida room. All the bedrooms and bathrooms are at the front of the house and outside in the carport is the laundry room and storage area. And the HOA is only $69 per month and includes all the community club house facilities and lawn care! It even has a private security service. This one has to go to the top of your short list!

22. 2006-03-24
    soldstatus $57,700
23. 1983-01-01
    soldstatus $50,400
24. 1981-10-01
    soldstatus $52,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,065 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,702 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$637/yr (+$53/mo · 59.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,805
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$1,065
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,064
• − Management: −$2,064
• − HOA: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $184
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$44
• After-tax cash flow: $3,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Campbell

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #848
• US rank: #21421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 60,595
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 46,768
• Household income: $66,339
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1302.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Black 22% Two or more races 16% White 13% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 36% Cuban 3% Dominican 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.53%
• Current HPI: 295.8928
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+288.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-14 Sold (MLS) $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-04 Listed $75,327 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $57,700 Public Records
• 1983-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,400 Public Records
• 1981-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,065 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.