200 Firebush Way · Buda, TX 78610

$212,997

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,506 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2008 6,385 sqft lot $141/sqft · 33% below area Est $318k · 33% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful Home, convenient location by I-35 and major shopping. 20 minutes to downtown Austin.

Key facts

• Major shopping
• Convenient location
• 6,385 sq ft lot

Tags

• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• MAJOR SHOPPING
• 20 MINUTES TO DOWNTOWN AUSTIN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Green Meadows Homeowner Association; HOA fee $240 annually; Community playground; Community sport court(s)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Front-facing garage; 2 covered garage spaces; Total 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces west; Resale property; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built per public records; Brick and HardiPlank-type siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Back yard fencing; Front yard; Interior lot; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Laminate counters; Open floor plan; Pantry; Main-level primary
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $213k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-206 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.6% in Buda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#339 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tom Green El (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,500 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 559 students, 63% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1005 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 9% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,557 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.15%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $318,338
• List price: $212,997
• Delta: -33.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
263 Feathergrass Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,506 (0%)	6mo	$279,000	$185	93
272 Feathergrass Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,479 (-2%)	10mo	$279,500	$189	86
1065 Canada Wild Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,626 (+8%)	1mo	$299,900	$184	77
160 Vermilion Marble Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,567 (+4%)	8mo	$300,000	$191	62
463 Bridgestone Way	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,630 (+8%)	1mo	$305,000	$187	61
152 Vermilion Marble Trl	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-5%)	13mo	$274,999	$192	56
539 Bridgestone Way	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,630 (+8%)	13mo	$339,000	$208	54
288 Emerald Green Trl	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,625 (+8%)	8mo	$274,900	$169	48
233 Emerald Green Trl	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,625 (+8%)	12mo	$285,000	$175	47
299 Andesite Trl	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,690 (+12%)	10mo	$300,000	$178	42
2292 Intrepid Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,652 (+10%)	13mo	$304,888	$185	38
289 Emerald Green Trl	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,695 (+12%)	12mo	$275,000	$162	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-53,211
• Equity at exit: $31,759

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-84,691
• Equity at exit: $18,416

Cash invested: $59,639 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78610

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1005
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,967 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,117
• Tax from tax record: −$535 /mo · $6,415/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,228

Max offer price $176,557

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-86	-5% $-146	+0% $-206	+5% $-267	+10% $-327
Rent	-10% $-362	-5% $-284	+0% $-206	+5% $-129	+10% $-51
Rate	-1.0pp $-99	-0.5pp $-152	base $-206	+0.5pp $-261	+1.0pp $-318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,249
• Closing costs: $6,390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
315 Feathergrass Dr Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,725	$1.20	6d	1	0.05mi
2480 Green Meadows Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	2201	$1,995	$0.91	6d	1	0.08mi
2338 Green Meadows Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,850	$1.19	45d	1	0.15mi
184 Wolf Berry Path Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1743	$1,875	$1.08	45d	1	0.18mi
228 Pigeon Berry Pass Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1676	$1,895	$1.13	6d	1	0.19mi
251 Wolf Berry Path Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,945	$1.14	16d	1	0.24mi
808 Staglin St Unit A Buda, TX	4.0	3.0	1800	$2,050	$1.14	6d	1	0.31mi
732 Staglin St Unit B Buda, TX	4.0	3.0	1800	$1,925	$1.07	45d	1	0.31mi
775 Staglin St Unit A Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,875	$1.26	12d	1	0.35mi
278 Cross Barn Blvd Buda, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1642	$1,745	$1.06	19d	3	0.37mi
130 Schrader Dr Unit B Buda, TX	4.0	3.0	1800	$1,875	$1.04	45d	1	0.40mi
144 Schrader Dr Unit B Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,875	$1.26	23d	1	0.40mi
313 Cross Barn Blvd Unit A Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	1676	$1,850	$1.10	25d	1	0.41mi
414 Cross Barn Blvd Unit A Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,749	$1.35	45d	1	0.45mi
109 Gunner Rd Unit A Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	1676	$1,950	$1.16	12d	1	0.45mi
109 Gunner Rd Unit B Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	1676	$1,950	$1.16	19d	1	0.45mi
1664 Hillside Ter Buda, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1168	$2,487	$2.13	0d	36	0.47mi
264 Vermilion Marble Trl Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$2,150	$1.10	14d	1	0.47mi
950 FM 2001 Buda, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,807	$1.83	0d	55	0.51mi
1516 Farm to Market Road 2001 Buda, TX	2.0	2.0	1173	$1,250	$1.07	45d	1	0.59mi
370 Vermilion Marble Trl Buda, TX	4.0	3.0	2097	$2,195	$1.05	19d	1	0.59mi
307 Andesite Trl Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1739	$2,050	$1.18	45d	1	0.63mi
220 Stone Crest Blvd Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	2248	$2,400	$1.07	25d	1	0.70mi
1518 FM 2001 Buda, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,495	$1.49	0d	38	0.73mi
180 Sandstone Trl Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,995	$1.33	18d	1	0.78mi
5850 Dacy Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,900	$1.04	25d	1	0.82mi
476 Suffield Dr Buda, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1751	$2,651	$1.51	0d	36	0.87mi
265 Shale Cir Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1737	$2,075	$1.19	45d	1	0.88mi
533 Jack Rabbit Ln Unit A Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,650	$1.20	6d	1	1.06mi
130 Quarter Ave Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,750	$1.34	16d	1	1.06mi
232 Natchez Dr Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	2028	$2,500	$1.23	16d	1	1.07mi
1216 Shadow Creek Blvd Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$1,800	$1.06	19d	1	1.07mi
601 Jack Rabbit Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,675	$1.24	25d	1	1.08mi
292 Strawberry Blonde Dr Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,085	$1.27	0d	1	1.09mi
489 Cherrystone Loop Buda, TX	4.0	3.0	2220	$2,725	$1.23	13d	1	1.09mi
479 Jack Rabbit Ln Unit A Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,699	$1.24	23d	1	1.10mi
1172 Shadow Creek Blvd Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$1,995	$1.17	19d	1	1.11mi
236 Black Frst Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$1,695	$1.00	3d	1	1.12mi
421 Jack Rabbit Ln Unit B Hays, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,650	$1.20	4d	1	1.16mi
275 Cherrystone Loop Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1797	$2,200	$1.22	3d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $212,997 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $212,997 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $212,997 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $212,997 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $212,997 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $212,997 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $213,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $213,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $213,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $213,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $213,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $213,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $213,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $213,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-03-21
    price
16. 2026-03-13
    status Active
17. 2026-02-25
    price
18. 2026-01-15
    listed Active
19. 2022-10-24
    status Active
20. 2022-08-12
    historical Active Under Contract
21. 2022-06-28
    listed Active
22. 2020-12-03
    soldstatus
23. 2017-10-04
    soldstatus
24. 2017-10-03
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2017-08-15
    status Pending - Taking Backups
26. 2017-07-27
    listed $195,000 Active
27. 2017-07-25
    historical $195,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,415 · $535/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,415 · $535/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,931
• − Property taxes: −$6,415
• − Insurance: −$1,065
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$6,196
• Taxable loss: −$6,019
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,444
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,031/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Buda

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #339
• US rank: #7407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buda, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 48,319
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,319
• Household income: $119,698
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.50%
• Current HPI: 220.6824
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $212,997 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2022-10-24 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2022-08-12 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2022-06-28 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2020-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-10-03 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2017-08-15 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2017-07-27 Listed $195,000 Unlock MLS
• 2017-07-25 Coming Soon $195,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,415 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.