19115 Adirondack Ter · Trilby, FL 33523

$213,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1987 0.51 ac lot Est $268k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3/2 Manufactured home , New Metal Roof and New Central Air conditioning in 1/2 Acre. Confortable house , Come and See this property. Realtor and buyers must verify information.

Key facts

• New bedroom flooring
• Outdoor space
• 0.51 acre lot

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS
• NEW BEDROOM FLOORING
• OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.51 acres; Zoning: R1MH; Land included with condo flag: Yes; Direction faces: East
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association; No association approval required

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property; One story; Faces east; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Building area ~1584 sq ft (per public records); Living area ~1456 sq ft (per public records)
• Exterior features: Porch; Exterior lighting; Road surface: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Solid surface counters
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $213k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($680/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#884 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,349 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.14%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,904
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18711 Powerline Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	16mo	$288,333	$184	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $119,531
• Equity at exit: $191,887

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.85×
• Total profit: $349,000
• Equity at exit: $413,812

Cash invested: $59,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33523

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,713 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,117
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,095/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,642

Max offer price $213,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $117	+0% $57	+5% $-4	+10% $-64
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $-11	+0% $57	+5% $124	+10% $192
Rate	-1.0pp $164	-0.5pp $111	base $57	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-55

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,250
• Closing costs: $6,390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 599-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   status $213,000 Pending 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $213,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $213,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 559-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $213,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,095 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,768 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$673/yr (+$56/mo · 61.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,931
• − Property taxes: −$1,095
• − Insurance: −$1,065
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,645
• − Management: −$1,645
• − Depreciation: −$6,196
• Taxable loss: −$3,016
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$724
• After-tax cash flow: $1,404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Trilby

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #24726

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,296

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.36%
• Current HPI: 448.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+610.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $213,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-25 Sold (MLS) $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-19 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2006-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records
• 2006-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,095 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.