2801 County Road 911 · Burleson, TX 76058

$222,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1997 1.00 ac lot $132/sqft · 9% below area Est $244k · 9% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller is motivated!! This home is on a beautiful, corner lot with many trees! 3 bedroom, 2 bath and an open floor plan. Nice wood flooring in kitchen and utility room. Kitchen has tons of cabinet space and a beautiful built in Hutch. Spacious living room and kitchen. Sip coffee on the Large covered deck and view the nice country setting. Highly sought after Godley school district. Sold as-is. Seller does not have a survey. Buyer to purchase new one.

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• Open floor plan
• Built in hutch

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WOOD FLOORING
• TONS OF CABINET SPACE
• BUILT IN HUTCH
• LARGE COVERED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $222k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Legacy El (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 408 students, 32% FRL); Godley H S (math 27% / reading 51%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 777 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,020 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.81%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,715
• List price: $222,000
• Delta: -8.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6017 Black Springs Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	1mo	$235,000	$140	73
6112 Wild Berry Trl	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,756 (+4%)	6mo	$315,000	$179	64
2908 Berry Patch Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-13%)	15mo	$245,000	$168	48
5921 Black Springs Ln	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (+13%)	7mo	$260,000	$137	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-20,173
• Equity at exit: $33,101

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,627
• Equity at exit: $19,195

Cash invested: $62,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76058

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,080 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,164
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,654/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,765

Max offer price $222,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $375	-5% $312	+0% $249	+5% $186	+10% $123
Rent	-10% $85	-5% $167	+0% $249	+5% $331	+10% $413
Rate	-1.0pp $361	-0.5pp $305	base $249	+0.5pp $191	+1.0pp $133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,500
• Closing costs: $6,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $222,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $222,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $222,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $222,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $222,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $222,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $222,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $222,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $222,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 551-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $222,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $222,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $222,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $222,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $222,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $222,000 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-04-15
    price $222,000 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Seller is motivated!! This home is on a beautiful, corner lot with many trees! 3 bedroom, 2 bath and an open floor plan. Nice wood flooring in kitchen and utility room. Kitchen has tons of cabinet space and a beautiful built in Hutch. Spacious living room and kitchen. Sip coffee on the Large covered deck and view the nice country setting. Highly sought after Godley school district. Sold as-is. Seller does not have a survey. Buyer to purchase new one.

18. 2026-04-09
    price $224,900 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Seller is motivated!! This home is on a beautiful, corner lot with many trees! 3 bedroom, 2 bath and an open floor plan. Nice wood flooring in kitchen and utility room. Kitchen has tons of cabinet space and a beautiful built in Hutch. Spacious living room and kitchen. Sip coffee on the Large covered deck and view the nice country setting. Highly sought after Godley school district. Sold as-is. Seller does not have a survey. Buyer to purchase new one.

19. 2026-04-09
    status Active 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Seller is motivated!! This home is on a beautiful, corner lot with many trees! 3 bedroom, 2 bath and an open floor plan. Nice wood flooring in kitchen and utility room. Kitchen has tons of cabinet space and a beautiful built in Hutch. Spacious living room and kitchen. Sip coffee on the Large covered deck and view the nice country setting. Highly sought after Godley school district. Sold as-is. Seller does not have a survey. Buyer to purchase new one.

20. 2026-04-05
    historical Active Option Contract 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Seller is motivated!! This home is on a beautiful, corner lot with many trees! 3 bedroom, 2 bath and an open floor plan. Nice wood flooring in kitchen and utility room. Kitchen has tons of cabinet space and a beautiful built in Hutch. Spacious living room and kitchen. Sip coffee on the Large covered deck and view the nice country setting. Highly sought after Godley school district. Sold as-is. Seller does not have a survey. Buyer to purchase new one.

21. 2026-03-13
    listed $229,000 Active 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Seller is motivated!! This home is on a beautiful, corner lot with many trees! 3 bedroom, 2 bath and an open floor plan. Nice wood flooring in kitchen and utility room. Kitchen has tons of cabinet space and a beautiful built in Hutch. Spacious living room and kitchen. Sip coffee on the Large covered deck and view the nice country setting. Highly sought after Godley school district. Sold as-is. Seller does not have a survey. Buyer to purchase new one.

22. 2025-10-31
    soldstatus
23. 1997-06-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,654 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,063 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,408/yr (+$201/mo · 145.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,435
• − Property taxes: −$1,654
• − Insurance: −$1,110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,997
• − Management: −$1,997
• − Depreciation: −$6,458
• Taxable loss: −$688
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$165
• After-tax cash flow: $3,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Godley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,332
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5820
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 81,549
• Population (ZIP): 21,531

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.22%
• Current HPI: 265.6513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $222,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $224,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-05 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $229,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,654 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.