Orchid Plan · Estero, FL 33928

$365,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,564 sqft · Townhouse · 785 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. Directly off the entry is a bedroom near a secluded den, perfect for a home office or studio. An open-concept layout blends the kitchen, living and dining areas with convenient access to a lanai for simple outdoor entertainment and leisure. A luxurious owner's suite at the back of the home features a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 785 days

Tags

• LANAI FOR SOCIALIZING
• DEN AS STUDY OR MEDIA ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $365,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $376,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $366k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $366k).
• Recommended offer: $322k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.2% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewoods Elementary School (math 81% / reading 74%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,089 students, 25% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 57% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 881 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 82d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,243/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $105k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 785 days — a 12% lower offer ($322k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $322,079 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 785 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.59%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $376,000
• List price: $365,999
• Delta: -2.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19504 Hinkley Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,564 (0%)	1mo	$376,000	$240	70
20060 Kingmont Dr	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,650 (+6%)	0mo	$380,000	$230	67
20549 Pebble Glen Dr	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,405 (-10%)	0mo	$415,000	$295	59
20593 Pebble Glen Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (+6%)	0mo	$415,000	$252	58
18297 Ridgeline Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,677 (+7%)	12mo	$445,000	$265	57
20590 Pebble Glen Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,405 (-10%)	6mo	$437,000	$311	52
20506 Pebble Glen Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,405 (-10%)	17mo	$415,000	$295	51
19528 Hinkley Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,564 (0%)	17mo	$350,000	$224	50
20564 Pebble Glen Dr	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,405 (-10%)	11mo	$440,000	$313	49
19536 Hinkley Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,417 (-9%)	2mo	$370,000	$261	46
19625 Hinkley Dr	0.82mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,417 (-9%)	11mo	$340,000	$240	35
19555 Utopia Ln	1.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+8%)	19mo	$515,000	$305	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $22,081
• Equity at exit: $56,063

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $86,741
• Equity at exit: $32,510

Cash invested: $105,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $363,499 ($244/sqft)
• Median days on market: 423 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 881
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,243 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,972
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$470 /mo · $5,640/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,101
• Net cashflow: $1,543

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,289

Max offer price $376,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,803	-5% $1,673	+0% $1,543	+5% $1,413	+10% $1,283
Rent	-10% $1,129	-5% $1,336	+0% $1,543	+5% $1,750	+10% $1,957
Rate	-1.0pp $1,733	-0.5pp $1,639	base $1,543	+0.5pp $1,446	+1.0pp $1,347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,000
• Closing costs: $11,280
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18400 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$6,500	$2.95	9d	1	0.08mi
20419 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2088	$6,490	$3.11	119d	1	0.13mi
20274 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1657	$7,000	$4.22	7d	1	0.23mi
20285 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2133	$6,200	$2.91	119d	1	0.27mi
18315 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,750	$1.70	111d	1	0.30mi
20047 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$9,000	$4.09	99d	1	0.33mi
18282 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2126	$10,500	$4.94	0d	1	0.35mi
18282 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2126	$10,000	$4.70	65d	1	0.35mi
19278 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2201	$3,395	$1.54	98d	1	0.36mi
20514 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1670	$5,700	$3.41	119d	1	0.37mi
20015 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$8,000	$3.63	119d	1	0.39mi
20024 Hartford Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2081	$6,950	$3.34	119d	1	0.41mi
20530 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2099	$5,950	$2.83	65d	1	0.41mi
19226 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,150	$1.90	88d	1	0.51mi
19218 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,000	$1.81	110d	1	0.52mi
19095 Hanley Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2127	$6,000	$2.82	9d	1	0.68mi
19592 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,800	$1.79	9d	1	0.79mi
19617 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,995	$1.91	65d	1	0.82mi
19232 Gentry Pl Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,800	$1.73	119d	1	0.90mi
19708 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,800	$1.79	65d	1	0.98mi
19712 Deming Ln Miromar Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	2091	$8,500	$4.07	82d	1	0.98mi
19712 Deming Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2091	$6,500	$3.11	9d	1	0.98mi
19728 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,800	$1.79	9d	1	1.01mi
19749 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,800	$1.79	7d	1	1.05mi
19828 The Pl Blvd Miromar Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$4,000	$2.16	93d	1	1.06mi
19584 Utopia Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2032	$3,500	$1.72	9d	1	1.20mi
19565 Deming Ln Miromar Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$3,800	$2.05	82d	1	1.20mi
19563 Utopia Ln Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2010	$3,450	$1.72	5d	1	1.24mi
19527 Utopia Ln Miromar Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$4,000	$2.16	82d	1	1.32mi
19824 Beechcrest Pl Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$7,000	$3.18	119d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 18389 Parksville Dr, Estero FL 33928
• Financial info: Listed for $365,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Orchid)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,564

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active plan named 'Orchid' (new construction plan)

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-07-18
   days on market $365,999 Active 785 DOM
2. 2026-07-18
   days on market $365,999 Active 784 DOM
3. 2026-07-16
   days on market $365,999 Active 783 DOM
4. 2026-07-15
   days on market $365,999 Active 782 DOM
5. 2026-07-13
   days on market $365,999 Active 780 DOM
6. 2026-07-13
   days on market $365,999 Active 779 DOM
7. 2026-07-12
   days on market $365,999 Active 778 DOM
8. 2026-07-10
   days on market $365,999 Active 777 DOM
9. 2026-07-10
   days on market $365,999 Active 776 DOM
10. 2026-07-07
    days on market $365,999 Active 774 DOM
11. 2026-07-06
    days on market $365,999 Active 773 DOM
12. 2026-07-05
    days on market $365,999 Active 772 DOM
13. 2026-07-02
    days on market $365,999 Active 769 DOM
14. 2026-07-01
    days on market $365,999 Active 768 DOM
15. 2026-06-30
    days on market $365,999 Active 767 DOM
16. 2026-06-29
    days on market $365,999 Active 766 DOM
17. 2026-06-28
    days on market $365,999 Active 765 DOM
18. 2026-06-25
    days on market $365,999 Active 761 DOM
19. 2026-06-22
    days on market $365,999 Active 758 DOM
20. 2026-06-17
    days on market $365,999 Active 754 DOM
21. 2026-06-16
    days on market $365,999 Active 753 DOM
22. 2026-06-16
    days on market $365,999 Active 752 DOM
23. 2026-06-13
    days on market $365,999 Active 750 DOM
24. 2026-06-09
    days on market $365,999 Active 746 DOM
25. 2026-06-07
    days on market $365,999 Active 744 DOM
26. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,999 Active 738 DOM
27. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,999 Active 737 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,062
• − Property taxes: −$5,640
• − Insurance: −$1,880
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,033
• − Management: −$5,033
• − Depreciation: −$10,938
• Taxable income: $13,327
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,198
• After-tax cash flow: $15,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern single-story townhouse is in good condition with a fresh paint job and modern finishes. It offers a low-maintenance layout and is ready for immediate occupancy.

Components & finishes AI

Roof tile · good Flooring tile

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and living areas — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 58/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rayma C. Page Elementary School A FL #281/2,144 Nat'l #2,730/41,679 Middle Bonita Springs Middle Center For The Arts C+ FL #209/571 Nat'l #2,873/14,009 High Estero High School D FL #179/667 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 871,946 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 18389 Parksville Dr, Estero FL 33928
• Financial info: Listed for $365,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Orchid)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,564

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active plan named 'Orchid' (new construction plan)