156 Cottage Club Dr · Heron Bay, GA 30248

$280,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,742 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2004 9,583 sqft lot $161/sqft · 16% below area Est $334k · 16% under $242/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled along the fairway in the highly sought after Cottage Club section of Heron Bay, this beautifully maintained bungalow offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience and golf course living. Easy one level living featuring an abundance of natural light with an airy open floor plan. The primary suite serves as a private retreat complete with double vanities, a soaking tub, and separate shower. Relax and undwind on the patio where peaceful views create the perfect indor-outdoor lifestyle. The community offers low maintenance living with resort style amenities. This exceptional opportunity to own in this premier community awaits you.

Key facts

• Airy open floor plan
• Soaking tub
• Private retreat

Tags

• AIRY OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• SOAKING TUB
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• INDOOR-OUTDOOR LIFESTYLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Heron Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#159 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Griffin-Spalding County (suburban): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #151 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jordan Hill Road Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #878 of 1,228 statewide, top 75%, 356 students, 98% FRL); Kennedy Road Middle School (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #392 of 470 statewide, top 84%, 477 students, 98% FRL); Spalding High School (math 11% / reading 25%, grade F, #258 of 424 statewide, top 62%, 1,252 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 68% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 499 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 342 units permitted in Spalding County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spalding County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $280k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,663 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.66%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,863
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -10.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
250 High Court Way	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+3%)	3mo	$297,500	$165	84
256 High Court Way	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,594 (-8%)	0mo	$280,000	$176	76
104 Court Xing	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,898 (+9%)	3mo	$300,000	$158	73
100 Cottage Club Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,828 (+5%)	2mo	$305,000	$167	72
352 Southgate Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,976 (+13%)	10mo	$299,000	$151	61
338 Southgate Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,963 (+13%)	15mo	$314,999	$160	54
349 Southgate Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,997 (+15%)	13mo	$305,000	$153	53
5001 Wolverine Pl	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,997 (+15%)	3mo	$320,000	$160	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-58,328
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-72,640
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30248

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 499
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,598/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$242
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,587

Max offer price $249,282

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-15	-5% $-95	+0% $-174	+5% $-253	+10% $-332
Rent	-10% $-361	-5% $-267	+0% $-174	+5% $-80	+10% $13
Rate	-1.0pp $-33	-0.5pp $-103	base $-174	+0.5pp $-246	+1.0pp $-320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
117 Cottage Club Dr Locust Grove, GA	3.0	3.0	2109	$1,995	$0.95	45d	1	0.23mi
125 N Chesapeake Bay Dr Locust Grove, GA	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,800	$1.50	26d	1	0.85mi
5341 Heron Bay Blvd Locust Grove, GA	4.0	2.5	2091	$2,800	$1.34	0d	1	1.07mi
409 Mazley Dr Locust Grove, GA	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,040	$1.10	0d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $242 · $2,904/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $280,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $280,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $280,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $280,000 New 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    Nestled along the fairway in the highly sought after Cottage Club section of Heron Bay, this beautifully maintained bungalow offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience and golf course living. Easy one level living featuring an abundance of natural light with an airy open floor plan. The primary suite serves as a private retreat complete with double vanities, a soaking tub, and separate shower. Relax and undwind on the patio where peaceful views create the perfect indor-outdoor lifestyle. The community offers low maintenance living with resort style amenities. This exceptional opportunity to own in this premier community awaits you.

16. 2026-05-06
    historical
17. 2026-02-27
    price $299,000
18. 2025-09-19
    listed $325,000 New
19. 2012-10-31
    soldstatus $125,000
20. 2012-10-01
    soldstatus $125,000 Sold
21. 2012-10-01
    historical
22. 2012-04-13
    listed $125,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,598 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,598 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$2,598
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,272
• − Management: −$2,272
• − HOA: −$2,904
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$6,876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,650
• After-tax cash flow: $-436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Griffin-Spalding County
• NCES district ID: 1302520
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,895
• Composite: 13.71/100
• National rank: #9496
• State rank: #151 of 174 in GA

Livability — Heron Bay

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #159
• US rank: #10151

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heron Bay, GA
• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 36,038
• Household income: $83,823
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 485.0

Population outlook (Spalding County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,015 people
• By 2030: 61,689 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 57,932 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 53,474 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 43,228 · -31.4%
• By 2100: 32,290 · -48.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spalding

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.4% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+24.2 2012: R+20.0 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.09%
• Current HPI: 203.5358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+124.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $280,000 GAMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $299,000 GAMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $325,000 GAMLS
• 2012-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2012-10-01 Sold (MLS) $125,000 GAMLS
• 2012-10-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2012-04-13 Listed $125,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,598 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.