13589 Albion Eagle Harbor Rd · Albion, NY 14411

$34,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1840 1.00 ac lot ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country Colonial on 2.4 acres. Inside is in good condition, spacious livingroom with fireplace insert, There is a lrg garage that could also be utiized for a workshop area, deck.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1840
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $34k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $795 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.4% vs local median 4.1% in Albion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,009 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Albion Central School District (town): math 37% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #479 of 590 in NY (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $235 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.9% of price; built in 1840 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $33,490 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1840 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.21%
• DSCR: 5.46
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $289,710
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13717 Albion Eagle Harbor Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+8%)	12mo	$155,000	$124	48
13738 W Route 31 Hwy	1.46mi	2/1.0	1,044 (-10%)	19mo	$255,000	$244	33
3436 Allens Bridge Rd	1.28mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,260 (+9%)	20mo	$232,500	$185	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $45,207
• Equity at exit: $5,070

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.02×
• Total profit: $104,892
• Equity at exit: $2,940

Cash invested: $9,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14411

• Home prices YoY: -11.6%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$178
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,656/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $795

Break-even live

Break-even rent $418

Max offer price $34,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $914	-5% $902	+0% $795	+5% $785	+10% $776
Rent	-10% $682	-5% $739	+0% $795	+5% $851	+10% $908
Rate	-1.0pp $812	-0.5pp $804	base $795	+0.5pp $786	+1.0pp $777

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,500
• Closing costs: $1,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $34,000 Active
3. 2011-06-10
   soldstatus $55,000
4. 2010-11-21
   listed $72,900
5. 2010-03-18
   soldstatus $55,000 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   Country Colonial on 2.4 acres. Inside is in good condition, spacious livingroom with fireplace insert, There is a lrg garage that could also be utiized for a workshop area, deck.

6. 2009-09-30
   listed $72,900 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   Country Colonial on 2.4 acres. Inside is in good condition, spacious livingroom with fireplace insert, There is a lrg garage that could also be utiized for a workshop area, deck.

7. 2002-12-16
   soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,656 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,656 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,905
• − Property taxes: −$1,656
• − Insurance: −$170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$989
• Taxable income: $9,641
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,314
• After-tax cash flow: $7,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albion Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602520
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,408
• Composite: 36.91/100
• National rank: #4541
• State rank: #479 of 590 in NY

Livability — Albion

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1009
• US rank: #19661

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,479

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,123 people
• By 2030: 37,648 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 34,432 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 31,487 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 26,544 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 22,251 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.8% · R 70.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+36.0 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.68%
• Current HPI: 302.9236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-24.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $34,000 UNYREIS
• 2011-06-10 Sold (MLS) $55,000 UNYREIS
• 2010-11-21 Listed $72,900 UNYREIS
• 2010-03-18 Sold (MLS) $55,000 UNYREIS
• 2009-09-30 Listed $72,900 UNYREIS
• 2002-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,656 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.