2 Lace Bark Ln · Vista Center, NJ 08527

$185,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 145 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $206/sqft · 56% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Land O Pines Mobile Home Park located in Jackson Township just minutes away from Six Flags Great Adventure and the Jackson Outlets!! Come view this lovely new mobile home; As you walk into the home you are greeted by the open concept living room/kitchen-dining room area and new laminate flooring throughout the home. All brand new Frigidaire appliances. The main bedroom is equipped with an ensuite full bath and walk in closet. There is a separate laundry room area. This home is truly a must see!! Land O Pines has strict two (2) person occupancy limit as per the park rules due to the septic. Note: Some photos have been enhanced to add skirting.

Key facts

• Ensuite full bath
• Walk in closet
• Built 2025

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• ENSUITE FULL BATH
• WALK IN CLOSET
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $798 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 3.3% in Vista Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#507 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 564 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.49%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,541
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: 56.06%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Marcia Memorial Cir	0.01mi	2/1.0	970 (+8%)	7mo	$115,000	$119	77
41 Marcia Memorial Cir	0.06mi	2/1.0	980 (+9%)	14mo	$55,000	$56	66
24 Lace Bark Ln	0.01mi	2/1.0	800 (-11%)	14mo	$117,500	$147	65
6 Lace Bark Ln	0.00mi	2/2.0	800 (-11%)	23mo	$149,900	$187	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $13,204
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $47,358
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08527

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 564
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,629 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $798

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 664-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Welcome to Land O Pines Mobile Home Park located in Jackson Township just minutes away from Six Flags Great Adventure and the Jackson Outlets!! Come view this lovely new mobile home; As you walk into the home you are greeted by the open concept living room/kitchen-dining room area and new laminate flooring throughout the home. All brand new Frigidaire appliances. The main bedroom is equipped with an ensuite full bath and walk in closet. There is a separate laundry room area. This home is truly a must see!! Land O Pines has strict two (2) person occupancy limit as per the park rules due to the septic. Note: Some photos have been enhanced to add skirting.

2. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Welcome to Land O Pines Mobile Home Park located in Jackson Township just minutes away from Six Flags Great Adventure and the Jackson Outlets!! Come view this lovely new mobile home; As you walk into the home you are greeted by the open concept living room/kitchen-dining room area and new laminate flooring throughout the home. All brand new Frigidaire appliances. The main bedroom is equipped with an ensuite full bath and walk in closet. There is a separate laundry room area. This home is truly a must see!! Land O Pines has strict two (2) person occupancy limit as per the park rules due to the septic. Note: Some photos have been enhanced to add skirting.

3. 2025-12-19
   listed $185,000 Active 664-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Welcome to Land O Pines Mobile Home Park located in Jackson Township just minutes away from Six Flags Great Adventure and the Jackson Outlets!! Come view this lovely new mobile home; As you walk into the home you are greeted by the open concept living room/kitchen-dining room area and new laminate flooring throughout the home. All brand new Frigidaire appliances. The main bedroom is equipped with an ensuite full bath and walk in closet. There is a separate laundry room area. This home is truly a must see!! Land O Pines has strict two (2) person occupancy limit as per the park rules due to the septic. Note: Some photos have been enhanced to add skirting.

4. 2025-12-19
   listed $185,000 Active 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Welcome to Land O Pines Mobile Home Park located in Jackson Township just minutes away from Six Flags Great Adventure and the Jackson Outlets!! Come view this lovely new mobile home; As you walk into the home you are greeted by the open concept living room/kitchen-dining room area and new laminate flooring throughout the home. All brand new Frigidaire appliances. The main bedroom is equipped with an ensuite full bath and walk in closet. There is a separate laundry room area. This home is truly a must see!! Land O Pines has strict two (2) person occupancy limit as per the park rules due to the septic. Note: Some photos have been enhanced to add skirting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,524
• − Management: −$2,524
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $7,055
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,693
• After-tax cash flow: $7,887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with new flooring, appliances, and a clean layout. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the fresh paint and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and increase its value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's appeal and value to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading the appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's appeal and value to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading the appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3407740
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $86,012
• Composite: 35.36/100
• National rank: #4956
• State rank: #228 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vista Center

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #21522

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,991
• Household income: $115,487
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -349.94%
• Current HPI: 338.3328
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.71%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $185,000 MOMLS