2856 Zink Rd · Mount Joy, PA 17545

$200,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,130 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1900 2.00 ac lot ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property is going to onsite auction 4/16/2026 at 4:00 PM and is being sold with reserve. LISTED PRICE IS ONLY A SUGGESTED OPENING BID AND IS NOT INDICATIVE OF THE FINAL SALES PRICE WHICH WILL BE BY SELLER CONFIRMATION DAY OF AUCTION. Terms: Down payment of $30,000 required day of auction. Settlement on or before May 29, 2026. Transfer taxes to be paid by buyer. Real Estate taxes shall be prorated. This 2+/- Acre property is in a very desirable location. 2 Story house tucked back off the road, bordering farmland, makes this a sought after property for someone who would like to have animals or just a private homestead.

Key facts

• Private homestead
• Bordering farmland
• 2 acre property

Tags

• 2 ACRE PROPERTY
• 2 STORY HOUSE
• BORDERING FARMLAND
• PRIVATE HOMESTEAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($261/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.6% in Mount Joy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#59 in PA, #410 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D.
• Manheim Central SD (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #242 of 539 in PA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $176,736 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-30,999
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-25,118
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17545

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,907/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,740

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $78	+0% $22	+5% $-35	+10% $-91
Rent	-10% $-118	-5% $-48	+0% $22	+5% $92	+10% $161
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $73	base $22	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Crestwyck Cir Mount Joy, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$2,481	$2.41	15d	6	1.41mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   listed $200,000 Active
3. 2024-07-03
   soldstatus $320,000
4. 2024-07-02
   soldstatus $320,000 Closed
5. 2024-05-17
   status Pending
6. 2024-05-10
   price $320,000
7. 2024-03-07
   price $340,000
8. 2024-02-12
   listed $365,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,907 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,034 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: +$126/yr (+$11/mo · 4.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,907
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,114
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$747
• After-tax cash flow: $1,009/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manheim Central SD
• NCES district ID: 4214550
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,723
• Composite: 40.02/100
• National rank: #3825
• State rank: #242 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Joy

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #410

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 19,761
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 23,556
• Household income: $84,704
• Rent vs Own: 19.0% rent · 81.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 342.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.46%
• Current HPI: 263.1172
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-45.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-02 Sold (MLS) $320,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $320,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-07 Price Changed $340,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-02-12 Listed $365,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,907 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.