15307 Mountain Plover Pl · Magnolia, TX 77354

$314,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,064 sqft · Land · 133 Days on market

Built 2026 5,532 sqft lot $154/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The open-concept design of the two-story Addington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room. The open feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Addington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor and the secondary bedrooms on the second floor.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Island kitchen
• Primary suite

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-323/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $88k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $249,779 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $163,156
• Equity at exit: $283,687

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $469,770
• Equity at exit: $611,781

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,498 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $764/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,532

Max offer price $310,138

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $62	+0% $-27	+5% $-116	+10% $-205
Rent	-10% $-224	-5% $-126	+0% $-27	+5% $72	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $132	-0.5pp $53	base $-27	+0.5pp $-109	+1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	45d	1	0.40mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,200	$1.01	0d	1	0.53mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	45d	1	0.55mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	0d	40	0.64mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	21d	1	0.66mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	45d	1	0.83mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	26d	1	0.86mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	26d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $154 · $1,848/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   The open-concept design of the two-story Addington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room. The open feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Addington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor and the secondary bedrooms on the second floor.

2. 2026-03-20
   price $314,900 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   The open-concept design of the two-story Addington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room. The open feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Addington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor and the secondary bedrooms on the second floor.

3. 2026-01-05
   listed $326,900 Active 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   The open-concept design of the two-story Addington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room. The open feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Addington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor and the secondary bedrooms on the second floor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $764 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,763 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,999/yr (+$417/mo · 654.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,973
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$764
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,398
• − Management: −$2,398
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$5,808
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,394
• After-tax cash flow: $1,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $314,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $326,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $764 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.