25195 Pomegranate Pl · Todd Mission, TX 77316

$239,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,504 sqft lot $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21242171 - Built by Imagination Homes - June 2026 Completion! ~ This beautifully designed two-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a 2-car garage, and 1,664 SF of thoughtfully designed living space. The open-concept first floor seamlessly connects the family room, dining area, & kitchen—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers a central island, oversized pantry, & convenient access to the utility room, plus a powder bath for guests. Privately tucked at the rear of the first floor, the primary suite offers a peaceful retreat. The generously sized bedroom is complemented by a walk-in closet and an en-suite bath featuring dual vanities, comfo

Key facts

• Central island
• Covered patio
• Oversized pantry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FIRST FLOOR
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• OVERSIZED PANTRY
• COVERED PATIO
• QUIET COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Inframark; Annual association fee of $550

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Faces south; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Covered deck/patio; Patio; Fully fenced private yard; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (13 x 15); Bedroom on the second floor (11 x 10); Bedroom on the second floor (11 x 10); Bedroom on the second floor (9 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Insulated doors; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with bath; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Quartz counters; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Kitchen/dining combo; Loft; Low emissivity windows; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $239,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $244,608.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-600/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.9% in Todd Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia El (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 649 students, 64% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,473 (10.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.88%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,608
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25295 Leather Leaf Ct	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-3%)	3mo	$254,990	$159	87
25272 Leather Leaf Ct	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-3%)	1mo	$254,990	$159	86
25561 Blossom Ct	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-3%)	1mo	$254,990	$159	83
25436 Blossom Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,675 (+1%)	0mo	$224,900	$134	76
25427 Blossom Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,675 (+1%)	3mo	$239,900	$143	74
25605 Microstar Way	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,694 (+2%)	1mo	$239,000	$141	72
25280 Leather Leaf Ct	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,881 (+13%)	2mo	$261,990	$139	72
25564 Blossom Ct	0.18mi	4/2.5	1,881 (+13%)	1mo	$263,990	$140	69
25235 Leather Leaf Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-11%)	2mo	$228,000	$153	66
5822 Agave Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,772 (+6%)	2mo	$269,873	$152	63
25494 Blossom Ct	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,880 (+13%)	0mo	$276,403	$147	61
25440 Blossom Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,869 (+12%)	3mo	$254,900	$136	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-48,204
• Equity at exit: $36,472

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-67,032
• Equity at exit: $21,149

Cash invested: $68,490 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,135 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,283
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,669/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,198

Max offer price $237,375

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $35	+0% $-50	+5% $-135	+10% $-219
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-134	+0% $-50	+5% $34	+10% $119
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $12	base $-50	+0.5pp $-113	+1.0pp $-178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,152
• Closing costs: $7,338
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25553 Blossom Ct Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,690	$1.35	4d	1	0.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    listed $239,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,702
• − Property taxes: −$3,669
• − Insurance: −$1,223
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,049
• − Management: −$2,049
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,116
• Taxable loss: −$4,744
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,138
• After-tax cash flow: $539/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This beautifully designed two-story home is move-in ready with excellent condition and a good location in a well-maintained neighborhood. The property offers a playground and tennis court, which can increase its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Playground and tennis court — These amenities can attract families and increase the property's appeal for both resale and rental.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Well-maintained landscaping and a good curb appeal can enhance the property's visual appeal and attract potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Playground and tennis court — These amenities can attract families and increase the property's appeal for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Well-maintained landscaping and a good curb appeal can enhance the property's visual appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Todd Mission

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #10627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $239,000 HARMLS