3964 Pate Pond Rd · Vernon, FL 32462

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,884 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 540 Days on market

Built 1990 3.62 ac lot $98/sqft · 12% above area Est $165k · 12% over ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect starter home/investment property! Located 35 minutes from Panama City Beach, this home is perfect for someone that wants to make their vision come to life. The home features over 1800sf, all the rooms are large, newer metal roof & HVAC, and several sheds & pole barns for all the hobbies. Go fishing in the pond in your backyard or drive to Holmes Creek that is 3 minutes from the home. Oodles of potential in this one!

Key facts

• Pole barns
• Hvac
• Fishing pond

Tags

• NEWER METAL ROOF
• HVAC
• SEVERAL SHEDS
• POLE BARNS
• FISHING POND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-444/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Vernon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#834 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities F.
• Washington (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #45 of 73 in FL (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 540 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,946 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 540 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.86%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,264
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: 11.94%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $12,615
• Equity at exit: $75,391

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $57,661
• Equity at exit: $110,455

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32462

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,549 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,566/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,596

Max offer price $178,460

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $68	-5% $15	+0% $-37	+5% $-89	+10% $-142
Rent	-10% $-159	-5% $-98	+0% $-37	+5% $24	+10% $85
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $10	base $-37	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 540 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 538 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 537 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 536 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 535 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 533 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 532 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 529 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 528 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 527 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 526 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 523 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 522 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 521 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 520 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 519 DOM
17. 2026-02-06
    price $185,000 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Perfect starter home/investment property! Located 35 minutes from Panama City Beach, this home is perfect for someone that wants to make their vision come to life. The home features over 1800sf, all the rooms are large, newer metal roof & HVAC, and several sheds & pole barns for all the hobbies. Go fishing in the pond in your backyard or drive to Holmes Creek that is 3 minutes from the home. Oodles of potential in this one!

18. 2025-10-07
    price $190,000 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Perfect starter home/investment property! Located 35 minutes from Panama City Beach, this home is perfect for someone that wants to make their vision come to life. The home features over 1800sf, all the rooms are large, newer metal roof & HVAC, and several sheds & pole barns for all the hobbies. Go fishing in the pond in your backyard or drive to Holmes Creek that is 3 minutes from the home. Oodles of potential in this one!

19. 2025-02-18
    price $200,000 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Perfect starter home/investment property! Located 35 minutes from Panama City Beach, this home is perfect for someone that wants to make their vision come to life. The home features over 1800sf, all the rooms are large, newer metal roof & HVAC, and several sheds & pole barns for all the hobbies. Go fishing in the pond in your backyard or drive to Holmes Creek that is 3 minutes from the home. Oodles of potential in this one!

20. 2024-12-27
    listed $210,000 Active 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Perfect starter home/investment property! Located 35 minutes from Panama City Beach, this home is perfect for someone that wants to make their vision come to life. The home features over 1800sf, all the rooms are large, newer metal roof & HVAC, and several sheds & pole barns for all the hobbies. Go fishing in the pond in your backyard or drive to Holmes Creek that is 3 minutes from the home. Oodles of potential in this one!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,566 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,566 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,566
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,487
• − Management: −$1,487
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,617
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$868
• After-tax cash flow: $424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washington
• NCES district ID: 1202010
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,948
• Composite: 41.12/100
• National rank: #3561
• State rank: #45 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vernon

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #834
• US rank: #20536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,087 people
• By 2030: 23,600 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 22,643 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 21,524 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 18,432 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 13,298 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 20% Two or more races 8% Native American 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Greek 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 17.0% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -47.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+57.1 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+47.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.24%
• Current HPI: 221.7113
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $185,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $190,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $200,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-12-27 Listed $210,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+13.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,566 · +278.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.