3042 Park Cir · Haines City, FL 33844

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1984 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

No HOA! Motivated Seller! Waterfront home 3 bed 2 bath and a large enclosed sunroom with beautiful view of the water. Home situated on a canal that leads out to Private Lake Lowrey. Covered Deck wraps around from the front to the back of the home with sliding doors leading out from the dining area. Brand NEW Carpets in the common areas and fresh exterior paint. AC replaced within the past few years. Extra Storage shed located at the back of the property. Do not miss your chance to view this waterfront home.

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Florida room
• New a/c

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• FLORIDA ROOM
• CANAL FRONTAGE
• WATER ACCESS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW A/C

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions not indicated
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; 1-car garage; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Residential property; Single-story (one level); Fronts north
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other roof type; Other foundation
• Exterior features: On a freshwater canal with approximately 110 feet of waterfront; Canal water view; Canal water access; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Split bedroom layout; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,425 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.77%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,157
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $17,964
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,955 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,060/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,510

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $411	-5% $382	+0% $352	+5% $322	+10% $292
Rent	-10% $197	-5% $275	+0% $352	+5% $429	+10% $506
Rate	-1.0pp $405	-0.5pp $379	base $352	+0.5pp $325	+1.0pp $297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $105,000 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $105,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    listed $119,000 Active
16. 2025-05-27
    soldstatus $150,000
17. 2025-05-13
    soldstatus $150,000 Closed 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    No HOA! Motivated Seller! Waterfront home 3 bed 2 bath and a large enclosed sunroom with beautiful view of the water. Home situated on a canal that leads out to Private Lake Lowrey. Covered Deck wraps around from the front to the back of the home with sliding doors leading out from the dining area. Brand NEW Carpets in the common areas and fresh exterior paint. AC replaced within the past few years. Extra Storage shed located at the back of the property. Do not miss your chance to view this waterfront home.

18. 2025-03-11
    status Pending 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    No HOA! Motivated Seller! Waterfront home 3 bed 2 bath and a large enclosed sunroom with beautiful view of the water. Home situated on a canal that leads out to Private Lake Lowrey. Covered Deck wraps around from the front to the back of the home with sliding doors leading out from the dining area. Brand NEW Carpets in the common areas and fresh exterior paint. AC replaced within the past few years. Extra Storage shed located at the back of the property. Do not miss your chance to view this waterfront home.

19. 2025-03-05
    status Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    No HOA! Motivated Seller! Waterfront home 3 bed 2 bath and a large enclosed sunroom with beautiful view of the water. Home situated on a canal that leads out to Private Lake Lowrey. Covered Deck wraps around from the front to the back of the home with sliding doors leading out from the dining area. Brand NEW Carpets in the common areas and fresh exterior paint. AC replaced within the past few years. Extra Storage shed located at the back of the property. Do not miss your chance to view this waterfront home.

20. 2025-02-12
    price $169,900 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    No HOA! Motivated Seller! Waterfront home 3 bed 2 bath and a large enclosed sunroom with beautiful view of the water. Home situated on a canal that leads out to Private Lake Lowrey. Covered Deck wraps around from the front to the back of the home with sliding doors leading out from the dining area. Brand NEW Carpets in the common areas and fresh exterior paint. AC replaced within the past few years. Extra Storage shed located at the back of the property. Do not miss your chance to view this waterfront home.

21. 2025-01-08
    price $189,900 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    No HOA! Motivated Seller! Waterfront home 3 bed 2 bath and a large enclosed sunroom with beautiful view of the water. Home situated on a canal that leads out to Private Lake Lowrey. Covered Deck wraps around from the front to the back of the home with sliding doors leading out from the dining area. Brand NEW Carpets in the common areas and fresh exterior paint. AC replaced within the past few years. Extra Storage shed located at the back of the property. Do not miss your chance to view this waterfront home.

22. 2024-11-18
    status Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    No HOA! Motivated Seller! Waterfront home 3 bed 2 bath and a large enclosed sunroom with beautiful view of the water. Home situated on a canal that leads out to Private Lake Lowrey. Covered Deck wraps around from the front to the back of the home with sliding doors leading out from the dining area. Brand NEW Carpets in the common areas and fresh exterior paint. AC replaced within the past few years. Extra Storage shed located at the back of the property. Do not miss your chance to view this waterfront home.

23. 2024-09-06
    listed $199,900 Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    No HOA! Motivated Seller! Waterfront home 3 bed 2 bath and a large enclosed sunroom with beautiful view of the water. Home situated on a canal that leads out to Private Lake Lowrey. Covered Deck wraps around from the front to the back of the home with sliding doors leading out from the dining area. Brand NEW Carpets in the common areas and fresh exterior paint. AC replaced within the past few years. Extra Storage shed located at the back of the property. Do not miss your chance to view this waterfront home.

24. 2014-07-31
    soldstatus $58,000
25. 2014-05-05
    historical
26. 2014-04-26
    price $73,000
27. 2014-04-23
    status Active
28. 2014-04-18
    status Pending
29. 2013-11-13
    listed $76,900 Active
30. 2012-09-05
    soldstatus $56,000
31. 2012-08-22
    soldstatus $56,000
32. 2010-04-28
    listed $60,000
33. 2009-03-19
    listed $112,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,060 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,060 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$2,060
• − Insurance: −$5,644
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,877
• − Management: −$1,877
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $3,067
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$736
• After-tax cash flow: $3,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+6.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $119,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-13 Sold (MLS) $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-12 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-08 Price Changed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-06 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2014-05-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-26 Price Changed $73,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-13 Listed $76,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2012-08-22 Sold (MLS) $56,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-28 Listed $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-03-19 Listed $112,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,060 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.