858 Lexington Dr · Lancaster, TX 75134

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,308 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1970 6,970 sqft lot $149/sqft · 14% below area Est $227k · 14% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

858 Lexington Drive is located in an established pocket of Lancaster, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home delivers over 1,300 square feet of functional space with solid bones and real upside. The 2 car garage also offers plenty of additional space. The layout is practical, the lot gives you room to work with in both the front and back yard. The neighborhood is peaceful, quiet, and surprisingly has a rural feel. Directly behind the home are properties on acreage with sheep that you can hear from the back porch. Whether you’re a first time buyer looking to get into the market or looking for a home to downsize to, this property checks the boxes. This home is just waiting on you to make it your own. Homes at this price point with this kind of potential are getting harder to find, especially in a location that keeps you close to everything while still feeling tucked away. If you’ve been waiting for the right one to move on, this is it. Come out and see 858 Lexington Drive today!

Key facts

• Solid bones
• Practical layout
• Functional space

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL SPACE
• SOLID BONES
• PRACTICAL LAYOUT
• PEACEFUL NEIGHBORHOOD
• PROPERTIES ON ACREAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.8% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#926 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, crime F.
• Lancaster ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #714 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 103 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.37%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,421
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -14.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2742 E Pepperidge Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+6%)	2mo	$230,000	$165	67
605 Colgate Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,172 (-10%)	3mo	$219,000	$187	61
2654 Princeton Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,452 (+11%)	4mo	$205,000	$141	60
905 Pepperidge Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+13%)	1mo	$234,900	$159	57
2421 Suffolk Ln	0.23mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,485 (+14%)	5mo	$160,000	$108	55
2822 Pebble Beach Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,465 (+12%)	1mo	$274,900	$188	55
1116 Cresthaven Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,383 (+6%)	5mo	$278,000	$201	54
2933 Lawndale Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+8%)	4mo	$234,900	$166	53
1114 Tracy Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,202 (-8%)	7mo	$215,000	$179	51
921 Brookhaven Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+11%)	4mo	$250,000	$172	50
871 Magnolia Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,447 (+11%)	5mo	$235,000	$162	44
922 W Wintergreen Rd	0.74mi	3/3.0	1,416 (+8%)	8mo	$280,000	$198	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-30,031
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-37,876
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75134

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,078 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$430 /mo · $5,159/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,941

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $218	-5% $163	+0% $108	+5% $52	+10% $-3
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $26	+0% $108	+5% $190	+10% $272
Rate	-1.0pp $206	-0.5pp $157	base $108	+0.5pp $57	+1.0pp $6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
833 Stanford Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,725	$1.71	44d	1	0.10mi
2617 Arcady Cir Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	44d	1	0.21mi
2617 Arcady Cir Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,895	$1.39	0d	1	0.21mi
2654 Hartford Ln Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1657	$2,015	$1.22	44d	1	0.29mi
721 Lindenwood Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,895	$1.18	8d	1	0.35mi
721 Lindenwood Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,895	$1.18	16d	1	0.35mi
834 Apple Valley Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$2,275	$1.60	44d	1	0.44mi
1326 Johns Ave Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1236	$2,100	$1.70	44d	1	0.52mi
2746 Town North Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1377	$2,000	$1.45	8d	1	0.52mi
1533 Prescott Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	5d	1	0.55mi
1252 Payne Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$2,239	$1.42	3d	1	0.58mi
1532 Linda Ln Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,000	$1.45	25d	1	0.63mi
719 Westover Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,900	$1.52	25d	1	0.64mi
509 Arbor Ln Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,875	$1.26	44d	1	0.64mi
2922 E Pepperidge Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1444	$2,000	$1.39	44d	1	0.65mi
907 Cresthaven Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,850	$1.35	25d	1	0.77mi
1255 W Pleasant Run Rd Lancaster, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	802	$1,450	$1.81	8d	10	0.81mi
1811 Kings Cross Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,200	$1.21	25d	1	0.93mi
230 E Colonial Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,695	$1.61	0d	1	1.03mi
120 E Park Place Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	1.0	1536	$1,900	$1.24	25d	1	1.07mi
1125 Greenbriar Ln Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1744	$1,825	$1.05	8d	1	1.10mi
2912 Crimson Clover Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$2,075	$1.20	8d	1	1.10mi
1021 Badger Run Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1811	$2,235	$1.23	44d	1	1.11mi
577 W 6th St Lancaster, TX	3.0	1.0	954	$1,600	$1.68	44d	1	1.16mi
1555 Willowbrook St Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,759	$1.14	23d	1	1.18mi
1244 Flower Ridge Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1818	$2,099	$1.15	44d	1	1.20mi
830 Bordner Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1821	$2,300	$1.26	13d	1	1.24mi
422 Ash Ln Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1651	$1,995	$1.21	25d	1	1.25mi
1218 Jewell Ln Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1854	$2,071	$1.12	8d	1	1.27mi
1225 Oakbluff Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,895	$1.42	4d	1	1.28mi
1424 Chapman Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$2,099	$1.15	25d	1	1.31mi
1748 Cansler Ln Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,195	$1.22	44d	1	1.33mi
610 Canvas Ct Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1859	$2,276	$1.22	8d	1	1.33mi
610 Canvas Ct Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1859	$2,210	$1.19	3d	1	1.33mi
3124 Crimson Clover Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1783	$2,100	$1.18	44d	1	1.33mi
1750 Oneal St Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,100	$1.44	44d	1	1.34mi
1447 Gentle Rain Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$2,200	$1.27	8d	1	1.36mi
823 N Dallas Ave Lancaster, TX	2.0	1.0	1156	$1,425	$1.23	11d	1	1.36mi
1373 Oakbluff Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1289	$1,850	$1.44	3d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $195,000 Pending 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $195,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $195,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $195,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $195,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $195,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-05-16
   price $195,000 992-char remark

   Show marketing remark (992 chars)

   858 Lexington Drive is located in an established pocket of Lancaster, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home delivers over 1,300 square feet of functional space with solid bones and real upside. The 2 car garage also offers plenty of additional space. The layout is practical, the lot gives you room to work with in both the front and back yard. The neighborhood is peaceful, quiet, and surprisingly has a rural feel. Directly behind the home are properties on acreage with sheep that you can hear from the back porch. Whether you’re a first time buyer looking to get into the market or looking for a home to downsize to, this property checks the boxes. This home is just waiting on you to make it your own. Homes at this price point with this kind of potential are getting harder to find, especially in a location that keeps you close to everything while still feeling tucked away. If you’ve been waiting for the right one to move on, this is it. Come out and see 858 Lexington Drive today!

8. 2026-04-25
   price $200,000 992-char remark

   Show marketing remark (992 chars)

   858 Lexington Drive is located in an established pocket of Lancaster, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home delivers over 1,300 square feet of functional space with solid bones and real upside. The 2 car garage also offers plenty of additional space. The layout is practical, the lot gives you room to work with in both the front and back yard. The neighborhood is peaceful, quiet, and surprisingly has a rural feel. Directly behind the home are properties on acreage with sheep that you can hear from the back porch. Whether you’re a first time buyer looking to get into the market or looking for a home to downsize to, this property checks the boxes. This home is just waiting on you to make it your own. Homes at this price point with this kind of potential are getting harder to find, especially in a location that keeps you close to everything while still feeling tucked away. If you’ve been waiting for the right one to move on, this is it. Come out and see 858 Lexington Drive today!

9. 2026-04-24
   status Active 992-char remark

   Show marketing remark (992 chars)

   858 Lexington Drive is located in an established pocket of Lancaster, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home delivers over 1,300 square feet of functional space with solid bones and real upside. The 2 car garage also offers plenty of additional space. The layout is practical, the lot gives you room to work with in both the front and back yard. The neighborhood is peaceful, quiet, and surprisingly has a rural feel. Directly behind the home are properties on acreage with sheep that you can hear from the back porch. Whether you’re a first time buyer looking to get into the market or looking for a home to downsize to, this property checks the boxes. This home is just waiting on you to make it your own. Homes at this price point with this kind of potential are getting harder to find, especially in a location that keeps you close to everything while still feeling tucked away. If you’ve been waiting for the right one to move on, this is it. Come out and see 858 Lexington Drive today!

10. 2026-04-17
    historical Active Option Contract 992-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    858 Lexington Drive is located in an established pocket of Lancaster, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home delivers over 1,300 square feet of functional space with solid bones and real upside. The 2 car garage also offers plenty of additional space. The layout is practical, the lot gives you room to work with in both the front and back yard. The neighborhood is peaceful, quiet, and surprisingly has a rural feel. Directly behind the home are properties on acreage with sheep that you can hear from the back porch. Whether you’re a first time buyer looking to get into the market or looking for a home to downsize to, this property checks the boxes. This home is just waiting on you to make it your own. Homes at this price point with this kind of potential are getting harder to find, especially in a location that keeps you close to everything while still feeling tucked away. If you’ve been waiting for the right one to move on, this is it. Come out and see 858 Lexington Drive today!

11. 2026-04-13
    listed $230,000 Active 992-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    858 Lexington Drive is located in an established pocket of Lancaster, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home delivers over 1,300 square feet of functional space with solid bones and real upside. The 2 car garage also offers plenty of additional space. The layout is practical, the lot gives you room to work with in both the front and back yard. The neighborhood is peaceful, quiet, and surprisingly has a rural feel. Directly behind the home are properties on acreage with sheep that you can hear from the back porch. Whether you’re a first time buyer looking to get into the market or looking for a home to downsize to, this property checks the boxes. This home is just waiting on you to make it your own. Homes at this price point with this kind of potential are getting harder to find, especially in a location that keeps you close to everything while still feeling tucked away. If you’ve been waiting for the right one to move on, this is it. Come out and see 858 Lexington Drive today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,159 · $430/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,159 · $430/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$5,159
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,995
• − Management: −$1,995
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$1,786
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$429
• After-tax cash flow: $1,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826670
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,275
• Composite: 21.41/100
• National rank: #8349
• State rank: #714 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #926
• US rank: #16461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 44,142
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,045
• Household income: $69,778
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 399.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 9% White 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.51%
• Current HPI: 323.4396
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $230,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,159 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.