934 Weinrich Rd · Picacho Hills, NM 88007

$128,250

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,795 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1977 2.24 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home situated on over two acres. Work is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or r

Key facts

• 2.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1977

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Two covered parking spaces (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-level / single-story home
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction
• Exterior features: Other-style roof; Lot around 2.24 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (forced air)
• Interior features: Forced air heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $731 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $886 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,250

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.43%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $25,810
• Equity at exit: $19,122

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $82,533
• Equity at exit: $11,089

Cash invested: $35,910 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88007

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,032 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$673
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,778/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $731

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,107

Max offer price $128,250

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,062
• Closing costs: $3,848
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6732 Camino Blanco Las Cruces, NM	2.0	2.0	1892	$1,695	$0.90	13d	1	1.11mi
7024 Camino Nuevo Mejico Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.5	2070	$2,500	$1.21	13d	1	1.17mi
1296 Cassatt Pl Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,950	$1.11	13d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $128,250 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $128,250 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,250 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,250 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $128,250 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   remarks 223-char remark
7. 2026-06-03
   listed $128,250 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,778 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,778 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,184
• − Property taxes: −$1,778
• − Insurance: −$641
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,951
• − Management: −$1,951
• − Depreciation: −$3,731
• Taxable income: $7,149
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,716
• After-tax cash flow: $7,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Picacho Hills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 25,750

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 34% Two or more races 19% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 30% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.30%
• Current HPI: 205.0841
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $128,250 NMMLS
• 2007-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-07-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,778 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.