924 Melody Ln · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$719,000

6 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,250 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 2022 6,216 sqft lot $320/sqft · 5% above area Est $827k · 13% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience three stories of delight with this 6-bedroom, 3.5 bath coastal treasure. Wrapped in two floors of decking, there are Gulf views to the east and west. Pull into the double-wide driveway, enter the kid- and pet-friendly fenced yard, and step into vacation mode. On the ground floor, the property features a tiki bar, outdoor firepit, park-style grill, BBQ pit, sand shower, and one-car garage. As you walk up the stairs, you'll catch your first view of the Gulf from the first of four front and back decks. Inside, the property has a reverse floorplan, with four of the bedrooms on the first floor while the common areas and two additional bedrooms are on the second floor to best take advantage of the views. Property features include: whole-house generator, quartz countertops, LVP flooring, two primary suites, floor-to-ceiling tiles in showers, and built-in bunk beds. Schedule a showing today to see for yourself!!

Key facts

• Bbq pit
• Fenced yard
• Outdoor firepit

Tags

• GULF VIEWS
• FENCED YARD
• TIKI BAR
• OUTDOOR FIREPIT
• PARK-STYLE GRILL
• BBQ PIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $719k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $535k (25.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $558k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $535k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 774 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($633k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $535,105 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.22%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $826,864
• List price: $719,000
• Delta: -13.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
854 Helen Blvd	0.28mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,400 (+7%)	11mo	$774,000	$323	59
817 Sendero Dr	0.31mi	5/4.0 (-1)	1,980 (-12%)	6mo	$899,000	$454	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-182,433
• Equity at exit: $107,205

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-242,699
• Equity at exit: $62,166

Cash invested: $201,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 774
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,576 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,771
• Tax from tax record: −$707 /mo · $8,483/yr
• Insurance: −$300
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,171
• Net cashflow: $-1,041

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,894

Max offer price $535,105

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-634	-5% $-837	+0% $-1,041	+5% $-1,244	+10% $-1,448
Rent	-10% $-1,481	-5% $-1,261	+0% $-1,041	+5% $-821	+10% $-600
Rate	-1.0pp $-679	-0.5pp $-858	base $-1,041	+0.5pp $-1,227	+1.0pp $-1,417

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $179,750
• Closing costs: $21,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
814 Helen Blvd Unit 1264135P Port Bolivar, TX	6.0	3.0	2400	$5,576	$2.32	0d	1	0.32mi

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $719,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $719,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $719,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $719,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $719,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $719,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $719,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $719,000 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $719,000 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $719,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $719,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $719,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $719,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $719,000 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    price $719,000 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    Experience three stories of delight with this 6-bedroom, 3.5 bath coastal treasure. Wrapped in two floors of decking, there are Gulf views to the east and west. Pull into the double-wide driveway, enter the kid- and pet-friendly fenced yard, and step into vacation mode. On the ground floor, the property features a tiki bar, outdoor firepit, park-style grill, BBQ pit, sand shower, and one-car garage. As you walk up the stairs, you'll catch your first view of the Gulf from the first of four front and back decks. Inside, the property has a reverse floorplan, with four of the bedrooms on the first floor while the common areas and two additional bedrooms are on the second floor to best take advantage of the views. Property features include: whole-house generator, quartz countertops, LVP flooring, two primary suites, floor-to-ceiling tiles in showers, and built-in bunk beds. Schedule a showing today to see for yourself!!

16. 2026-04-02
    price $729,000 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    Experience three stories of delight with this 6-bedroom, 3.5 bath coastal treasure. Wrapped in two floors of decking, there are Gulf views to the east and west. Pull into the double-wide driveway, enter the kid- and pet-friendly fenced yard, and step into vacation mode. On the ground floor, the property features a tiki bar, outdoor firepit, park-style grill, BBQ pit, sand shower, and one-car garage. As you walk up the stairs, you'll catch your first view of the Gulf from the first of four front and back decks. Inside, the property has a reverse floorplan, with four of the bedrooms on the first floor while the common areas and two additional bedrooms are on the second floor to best take advantage of the views. Property features include: whole-house generator, quartz countertops, LVP flooring, two primary suites, floor-to-ceiling tiles in showers, and built-in bunk beds. Schedule a showing today to see for yourself!!

17. 2026-03-12
    price $749,000 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    Experience three stories of delight with this 6-bedroom, 3.5 bath coastal treasure. Wrapped in two floors of decking, there are Gulf views to the east and west. Pull into the double-wide driveway, enter the kid- and pet-friendly fenced yard, and step into vacation mode. On the ground floor, the property features a tiki bar, outdoor firepit, park-style grill, BBQ pit, sand shower, and one-car garage. As you walk up the stairs, you'll catch your first view of the Gulf from the first of four front and back decks. Inside, the property has a reverse floorplan, with four of the bedrooms on the first floor while the common areas and two additional bedrooms are on the second floor to best take advantage of the views. Property features include: whole-house generator, quartz countertops, LVP flooring, two primary suites, floor-to-ceiling tiles in showers, and built-in bunk beds. Schedule a showing today to see for yourself!!

18. 2026-03-11
    price $755,000 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    Experience three stories of delight with this 6-bedroom, 3.5 bath coastal treasure. Wrapped in two floors of decking, there are Gulf views to the east and west. Pull into the double-wide driveway, enter the kid- and pet-friendly fenced yard, and step into vacation mode. On the ground floor, the property features a tiki bar, outdoor firepit, park-style grill, BBQ pit, sand shower, and one-car garage. As you walk up the stairs, you'll catch your first view of the Gulf from the first of four front and back decks. Inside, the property has a reverse floorplan, with four of the bedrooms on the first floor while the common areas and two additional bedrooms are on the second floor to best take advantage of the views. Property features include: whole-house generator, quartz countertops, LVP flooring, two primary suites, floor-to-ceiling tiles in showers, and built-in bunk beds. Schedule a showing today to see for yourself!!

19. 2026-02-12
    listed $779,000 Active 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    Experience three stories of delight with this 6-bedroom, 3.5 bath coastal treasure. Wrapped in two floors of decking, there are Gulf views to the east and west. Pull into the double-wide driveway, enter the kid- and pet-friendly fenced yard, and step into vacation mode. On the ground floor, the property features a tiki bar, outdoor firepit, park-style grill, BBQ pit, sand shower, and one-car garage. As you walk up the stairs, you'll catch your first view of the Gulf from the first of four front and back decks. Inside, the property has a reverse floorplan, with four of the bedrooms on the first floor while the common areas and two additional bedrooms are on the second floor to best take advantage of the views. Property features include: whole-house generator, quartz countertops, LVP flooring, two primary suites, floor-to-ceiling tiles in showers, and built-in bunk beds. Schedule a showing today to see for yourself!!

20. 2026-02-10
    historical
21. 2026-02-05
    price $779,000
22. 2026-02-05
    price $820,000
23. 2026-01-31
    price $779,000
24. 2025-10-11
    price $789,000
25. 2025-09-19
    listed $820,000 Active
26. 2025-09-03
    historical
27. 2025-08-17
    price $825,000
28. 2025-05-07
    price $835,000
29. 2025-05-02
    price $900,000
30. 2025-03-28
    price $950,000
31. 2025-02-22
    listed $975,000 Active
32. 2023-12-12
    soldstatus
33. 2022-08-13
    historical
34. 2022-06-20
    historical
35. 2022-04-25
    listed $787,100 Active
36. 2022-04-08
    listed $787,100
37. 2022-04-08
    listed Active
38. 2022-04-07
    listed $787,100 Active
39. 2022-03-07
    soldstatus
40. 2022-02-21
    historical
41. 2022-02-03
    price $2,730
42. 2021-10-01
    historical
43. 2021-05-08
    listed $79,000 Active
44. 2021-05-01
    listed $350,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,483 · $707/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,158 · $1,096/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,675/yr (+$390/mo · 55.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,275
• − Property taxes: −$8,483
• − Insurance: −$11,623
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,353
• − Management: −$5,353
• − Depreciation: −$20,916
• Taxable loss: −$25,092
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,022
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,470/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 2,362

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+105.4% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $719,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $729,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $749,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $755,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $779,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $779,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $820,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $779,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $789,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $820,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-17 Price Changed $825,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $835,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $900,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $950,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-22 Listed $975,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-13 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2022-06-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-04-25 Listed $787,100 NTREIS
• 2022-04-08 Listed $787,100 LERA
• 2022-04-08 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2022-04-07 Listed $787,100 HARMLS
• 2022-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-02-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-02-03 Price Changed $2,730 RENT.
• 2021-10-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-05-08 Listed $79,000 NTREIS
• 2021-05-01 Listed $350,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+29.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,483 · -10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.