188 Chrissy Ln · Trinity, TX 75862

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1994 0.72 ac lot $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on 5 spacious lots in a peaceful lake subdivision just blocks from the water. This property offers plenty of room to relax, entertain, or expand, featuring a large shop with concrete floors, RV cover and parking with 30/50 amp electric hookups, electric and water. Inside, you’ll find an central A/C and heat, washer and dryer, updated bathroom, open-concept living and kitchen area, and a large covered porch perfect for enjoying quiet mornings or evening gatherings. The property is fully fenced and cross-fenced, 2- car carport and offers flexibility for pets, hobbies, or additional outdoor space. Enjoy all the community amenities in

Key facts

• Large covered porch
• Fully fenced
• Rv cover

Tags

• RV COVER
• CONCRETE FLOORS
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• LARGE COVERED PORCH
• FULLY FENCED
• CROSS-FENCED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Tax year information available
• HOA & community: Hawg Heaven Property Owners Association; Annual association fee of $200; Association amenities: boat dock, boat ramp, clubhouse, playground, park; Association fee includes clubhouse, common areas, recreation facilities; Has association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces); Detached carport; Additional parking; Driveway parking; RV access/parking; Boat parking; Workshop in garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first floor living); Metal roof; Block foundation; Built in 1994
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built in 1994
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Private yard; Porch; Paved driveway; Storage shed(s); Shed(s); Cleared lot; Subdivision setting; Side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor); Total rooms: 4
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Window unit(s); Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Soaking tub; Window treatments; Ceiling fan(s); Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($464/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.2% in Trinity — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,405 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Groveton ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #281 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Groveton El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 340 students, 70% FRL); Groveton J H-H S (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 428 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 50% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $262 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-775 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,943 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.11%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,580
• Equity at exit: $39,719

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $13,809
• Equity at exit: $44,780

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75862

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,219 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $702/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,170

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $81	+0% $39	+5% $-4	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-58	-5% $-9	+0% $39	+5% $87	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $77	base $39	+0.5pp $0	+1.0pp $-40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $150,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-25
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $702 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,043/yr (+$170/mo · 290.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$702
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,171
• − Management: −$1,171
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,130
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$511
• After-tax cash flow: $976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Groveton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821900
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,375
• Composite: 37.76/100
• National rank: #4348
• State rank: #281 of 826 in TX

Livability — Trinity

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1405
• US rank: #24056

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,030

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Current HPI: 174.6638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $150,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+29.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $702 · -9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.