312 Welch St · Laurinburg, NC 28352

$134,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,396 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 257 Days on market

Built 1969 Est $99k · 36% over ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Step into this beautifully renovated 4-bedroom, 2-bath home that perfectly blends comfort, style, and convenience. Featuring approximately 1,300–1,400 sq. ft. of living space that feels even more expansive, this home has been thoughtfully updated throughout. Enjoy peace of mind with a newer roof (2024), a brand-new water heater, new flooring, and modern cabinetry that adds a fresh touch to every room. The spacious primary bedroom offers plenty of room to relax and includes a walk-in closet for added storage and organization. Located in Melrose Subdivision, this home is just minutes from shopping centers, restaurants, and everyday conveniences—making it ideal for both families an

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Modern cabinetry
• New flooring

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• BRAND NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW FLOORING
• MODERN CABINETRY
• WALK IN CLOSET
• MOVE IN READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.1% in Laurinburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#632 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Scotland County Schools (town): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #160 of 178 in NC (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Scotland High School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 1,445 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 72% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 26% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Scotland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Scotland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Scotland County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 257 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 257 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.06%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,116
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
710 Pine St	0.14mi	4/1.0	1,322 (-5%)	1mo	$25,000	$19	80
906 Biggs St	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-14%)	9mo	$85,000	$71	58
340 Douglas St	0.17mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,192 (-15%)	8mo	$36,500	$31	52
414 Yadkin Ave	0.48mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,250 (-10%)	1mo	$53,000	$42	52
1128 S Pine St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,239 (-11%)	16mo	$94,000	$76	52
513 Atkinson St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,280 (-8%)	11mo	$125,000	$98	48
506 Everett St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (+4%)	23mo	$170,000	$117	47
613 Mcnair Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,301 (-7%)	12mo	$62,000	$48	47
223 W Vance St	0.34mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,580 (+13%)	11mo	$170,000	$108	46
402 Yadkin Ave	0.44mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,238 (-11%)	12mo	$48,000	$39	44
302 S Caledonia Rd	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,257 (-10%)	16mo	$94,000	$75	34
411 Honey St #1	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,255 (-10%)	13mo	$32,500	$26	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,761
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $19,882
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28352

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,375 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $440/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,014

Max offer price $134,999

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $362	-5% $324	+0% $285	+5% $247	+10% $209
Rent	-10% $177	-5% $231	+0% $285	+5% $340	+10% $394
Rate	-1.0pp $353	-0.5pp $320	base $285	+0.5pp $250	+1.0pp $215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-07
   price $134,999
3. 2025-11-08
   price $139,999
4. 2025-09-15
   price $165,000
5. 2025-07-25
   price $175,000
6. 2025-06-28
   listed $185,000 Active
7. 2025-05-26
   listed $185,000 Active
8. 2025-05-21
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $440 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,107 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$667/yr (+$56/mo · 151.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$440
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,320
• − Management: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,255
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$301
• After-tax cash flow: $3,123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scotland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704200
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,203
• Composite: 20.66/100
• National rank: #8536
• State rank: #160 of 178 in NC

Livability — Laurinburg

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #632
• US rank: #22962

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Laurinburg, NC
• City population: 24,177
• Population (ZIP): 24,177

Population outlook (Scotland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,331 people
• By 2030: 32,017 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 29,290 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 26,554 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 19,857 · -40.4%
• By 2100: 13,851 · -58.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 37% Native American 11% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Scotland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.9) · D 46.2% · R 53.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -6.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.9 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+7.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.08%
• Current HPI: 255.331
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-27.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $134,999 LPRMLS
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $139,999 LPRMLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $165,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $175,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-06-28 Listed $185,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-05-26 Listed $185,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-05-21 Coming Soon — LPRMLS

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $440 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.