6885 Keats Dr · Vandalia, OH 45414

$137,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,254 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1959 8,891 sqft lot Est $143k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover an exceptional opportunity for comfortable living in this charming Harrison Township residence. This delightful 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home is move-in ready, presenting an ideal canvas for personal touches and future enhancements. The property offers the added convenience of a detached 2-car garage, providing ample space for vehicles, storage, or pursuing hobbies. A generous backyard creates a private outdoor sanctuary, perfect for relaxation or entertaining. Situated in a prime location, this home ensures easy access to a variety of shopping, dining, and schools, enriching everyday life. It stands as a perfect entry point for first-time homebuyers embarking on their homeownership

Key facts

• Prime location
• Generous backyard
• 8,891 sq ft lot

Tags

• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with space for two cars
• Utilities: Natural gas; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Vinyl siding exterior
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Residential lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the second level; Two bedrooms on the main level; Total of 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; At least one bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $345 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $137k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.9% in Vandalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#463 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 51 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $947 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.4% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $137k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $137,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.78%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,956
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2330 Arthur Ave	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,252 (-0%)	9mo	$160,000	$128	85
6732 Pyramid Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,170 (-7%)	11mo	$64,000	$55	74
2024 Kildare Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,298 (+4%)	7mo	$170,000	$131	69
6865 Keats Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-14%)	4mo	$123,000	$114	65
2632 Ashcraft Rd	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,329 (+6%)	3mo	$350,000	$263	60
2021 Cardinal Ave	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,238 (-1%)	8mo	$128,000	$103	58
2159 Gipsy Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,135 (-10%)	6mo	$125,000	$110	57
2217 Harding Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-14%)	7mo	$55,000	$51	57
2035 Cadie Ave	0.40mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,341 (+7%)	11mo	$142,000	$106	55
2010 Gipsy Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,373 (+10%)	6mo	$122,499	$89	52
5710 Durand St	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,350 (+8%)	9mo	$190,000	$141	47
5741 Lily Ln	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,073 (-14%)	6mo	$180,000	$168	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,440
• Equity at exit: $20,427

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $69,290
• Equity at exit: $11,845

Cash invested: $38,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45414

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,652 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,218/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $137,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,250
• Closing costs: $4,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2022 Arthur Ave Unit NA Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,500	$1.44	11d	1	0.38mi
6418 Oakhurst Pl Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1865	$1,995	$1.07	44d	1	1.19mi
3155 Silver Rock Ave Unit 3157 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,500	$1.25	2d	1	1.20mi
3136 Silver Rock Ave Unit 3138 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1274	$1,395	$1.09	19d	1	1.22mi
2991 Benchwood Rd Unit 2993 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1063	$1,295	$1.22	2d	1	1.24mi
3006 Benchwood Rd Unit 1 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1250	$1,275	$1.02	23d	1	1.25mi
3097 Silver Rock Ave Unit 3103 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1035	$1,295	$1.25	14d	1	1.30mi
3161 Autumn Ridge Ct Unit 3163 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1507	$1,395	$0.93	21d	1	1.43mi
5208 Brookmill Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,000	$1.11	2d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $137,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $137,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $145,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,218 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,218 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,674
• − Property taxes: −$2,218
• − Insurance: −$685
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,586
• − Management: −$1,586
• − Depreciation: −$3,985
• Taxable income: $2,089
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$501
• After-tax cash flow: $3,635/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Vandalia

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #463
• US rank: #7669

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 14,888
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 21,167
• Household income: $54,485
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 801.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 15% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.46%
• Current HPI: 183.1124
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.41%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+326.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $145,000 Dayton MLS
• 2021-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2019-02-26 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2019-02-26 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2019-02-22 Listed $70,000 Dayton MLS
• 2019-02-22 Listed $70,000 Cincy MLS
• 1982-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $33,968 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,218 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.