25539 E Brown Tract Rd · Lozano, TX 78568

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 416 Days on market

Built 1990 Fair condition 0.56 ac lot $82/sqft · 29% below area Est $134k · 29% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Livability +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming looking 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home on 0,56 acres is located in a peaceful neighborhood offers lots of potential.

Key facts

• 0.56 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 32/100 on livability (#1,687 in TX) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rio Hondo ISD (town): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #769 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 416 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 416 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.38%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $134,129
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -29.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30316 Petras Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,078 (-6%)	23mo	$139,000	$129	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $27,534
• Equity at exit: $42,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $75,531
• Equity at exit: $65,831

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78568

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 416 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 415 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 414 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 413 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 411 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 410 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 408 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 407 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 406 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 405 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 402 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 401 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 400 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 399 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 398 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 397 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    status Active 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    This charming looking 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home on 0,56 acres is located in a peaceful neighborhood offers lots of potential.

18. 2025-11-14
    price $95,000 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    This charming looking 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home on 0,56 acres is located in a peaceful neighborhood offers lots of potential.

19. 2025-07-18
    price $120,000 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    This charming looking 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home on 0,56 acres is located in a peaceful neighborhood offers lots of potential.

20. 2025-04-29
    listed $125,000 Active 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    This charming looking 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home on 0,56 acres is located in a peaceful neighborhood offers lots of potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $1,612
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$387
• After-tax cash flow: $2,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathrooms, replace worn flooring, and paint interior walls. These updates will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — severely dated and worn
• Major bathroom fixtures — severely dated and worn
• Major flooring — severely worn and in need of replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing the kitchen will appeal to buyers and renters
• Both replace worn flooring — new flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint will make the home more appealing and increase its value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · severely dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · severely dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · severely worn and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing the kitchen will appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both replace worn flooring — new flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint will make the home more appealing and increase its value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rio Hondo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837170
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $36,099
• Composite: 17.78/100
• National rank: #9014
• State rank: #769 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lozano

• Score: 32/100
• State rank: #1687
• US rank: #27850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

No demographic data for this ZIP.

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — RGVMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $95,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $120,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-04-29 Listed $125,000 RGVMLS