42 Reed Cr Cir · Bertram, TX 78605

$180,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 96 Days on market

Built 2014 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Small town living with city conveniences! 4 bedroom, 2 bath newer home. Ceiling fans and crown molding, open plan. Huge master bath w/ garden tub, shower, dbl vanity. Stainless fridge & washer and dryer convey. City utilities! Darling mfg home on a nice sized lot, neighbor in back is railroad tracks - Hill Country Flyer! BCISD Schools. Large backyard mostly fenced. An affordable place to call your own in Central TX, just a short commute to Austin and northern suburbs. FEMA - Unknown Restrictions: Yes

Key facts

• Dead-end street
• Fresh interior paint
• 0.29 acre lot

Tags

• REMODELED MANUFACTURED HOME
• NEW VINYL WOOD FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• FRONT PORCH WITH RAMP
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• DEAD-END STREET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-243/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.5% in Bertram — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#170 in TX, #4,466 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Burnet CISD (rural): math 36% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #465 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Burnet Middle (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 731 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 46% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 358 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,697 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-30,429
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-28,045
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78605

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,557 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,776/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,583

Max offer price $176,426

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $31	+0% $-20	+5% $-71	+10% $-122
Rent	-10% $-143	-5% $-82	+0% $-20	+5% $41	+10% $103
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $26	base $-20	+0.5pp $-67	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Castleberry Ct Unit A Bertram, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,525	$1.09	17d	1	0.22mi
520 West St Bertram, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,595	$1.38	6d	1	0.86mi
750 Fallen Oak Dr Bertram, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,595	$1.36	46d	1	1.23mi
90 Huge Oak St Bertram, TX	3.0	2.0	996	$1,650	$1.66	46d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-12
   soldstatus
2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
3. 2026-02-11
   price $180,000
4. 2026-01-14
   listed $185,000 Active
5. 2025-01-15
   soldstatus
6. 2020-10-16
   soldstatus
7. 2020-10-09
   soldstatus Closed 513-char remark

   Show marketing remark (513 chars)

   Small town living with city conveniences! 4 bedroom, 2 bath newer home. Ceiling fans and crown molding, open plan. Huge master bath w/ garden tub, shower, dbl vanity. Stainless fridge & washer and dryer convey. City utilities! Darling mfg home on a nice sized lot, neighbor in back is railroad tracks - Hill Country Flyer! BCISD Schools. Large backyard mostly fenced. An affordable place to call your own in Central TX, just a short commute to Austin and northern suburbs. FEMA - Unknown Restrictions: Yes

8. 2020-09-29
   status Pending 513-char remark

   Show marketing remark (513 chars)

   Small town living with city conveniences! 4 bedroom, 2 bath newer home. Ceiling fans and crown molding, open plan. Huge master bath w/ garden tub, shower, dbl vanity. Stainless fridge & washer and dryer convey. City utilities! Darling mfg home on a nice sized lot, neighbor in back is railroad tracks - Hill Country Flyer! BCISD Schools. Large backyard mostly fenced. An affordable place to call your own in Central TX, just a short commute to Austin and northern suburbs. FEMA - Unknown Restrictions: Yes

9. 2020-09-16
   historical Active Under Contract 513-char remark

   Show marketing remark (513 chars)

   Small town living with city conveniences! 4 bedroom, 2 bath newer home. Ceiling fans and crown molding, open plan. Huge master bath w/ garden tub, shower, dbl vanity. Stainless fridge & washer and dryer convey. City utilities! Darling mfg home on a nice sized lot, neighbor in back is railroad tracks - Hill Country Flyer! BCISD Schools. Large backyard mostly fenced. An affordable place to call your own in Central TX, just a short commute to Austin and northern suburbs. FEMA - Unknown Restrictions: Yes

10. 2020-08-31
    status Pending - Taking Backups 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Small town living with city conveniences! 4 bedroom, 2 bath newer home. Ceiling fans and crown molding, open plan. Huge master bath w/ garden tub, shower, dbl vanity. Stainless fridge & washer and dryer convey. City utilities! Darling mfg home on a nice sized lot, neighbor in back is railroad tracks - Hill Country Flyer! BCISD Schools. Large backyard mostly fenced. An affordable place to call your own in Central TX, just a short commute to Austin and northern suburbs. FEMA - Unknown Restrictions: Yes

11. 2020-08-23
    listed $117,900 Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Small town living with city conveniences! 4 bedroom, 2 bath newer home. Ceiling fans and crown molding, open plan. Huge master bath w/ garden tub, shower, dbl vanity. Stainless fridge & washer and dryer convey. City utilities! Darling mfg home on a nice sized lot, neighbor in back is railroad tracks - Hill Country Flyer! BCISD Schools. Large backyard mostly fenced. An affordable place to call your own in Central TX, just a short commute to Austin and northern suburbs. FEMA - Unknown Restrictions: Yes

12. 2014-10-10
    soldstatus 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Level cleared lot with city water & sewer and PEC electric on the lot. Just 7 miles from Liberty Hill High School, which has open enrollment. Manufactured Homes (Mobil Homes) are allowed. Lot is 100' x 125' and has some trees on it. OWNER FINANCING (no credit check) with payments as low as $346.54 per month (10% down-20 years (max)-10% APR). 10% discount for Cash or third party financing. Looking for a affordable lot to put a Manufactured home on? Here it is!Restrictions: Yes

13. 2014-05-19
    listed $39,900 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Level cleared lot with city water & sewer and PEC electric on the lot. Just 7 miles from Liberty Hill High School, which has open enrollment. Manufactured Homes (Mobil Homes) are allowed. Lot is 100' x 125' and has some trees on it. OWNER FINANCING (no credit check) with payments as low as $346.54 per month (10% down-20 years (max)-10% APR). 10% discount for Cash or third party financing. Looking for a affordable lot to put a Manufactured home on? Here it is!Restrictions: Yes

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,776 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$518/yr (+$43/mo · 18.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,776
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,495
• − Management: −$1,495
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$3,300
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$792
• After-tax cash flow: $549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burnet CISD
• NCES district ID: 4812220
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,890
• Composite: 32.09/100
• National rank: #5811
• State rank: #465 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bertram

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #4466

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bertram, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,632

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 19% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.46%
• Current HPI: 296.8166
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+351.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-04-20 Pending — HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $180,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-01-14 Listed $185,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-01-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-10-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-10-09 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2020-09-29 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2020-09-16 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2020-08-31 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2020-08-23 Listed $117,900 Unlock MLS
• 2014-10-10 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2014-05-19 Listed $39,900 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,776 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.