9916 E Gulf TO Lake Hwy · Inverness, FL 34450

$149,995

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 400 sqft · Other · 199 Days on market

Built 2016 10,049 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming, move-in-ready cottage tucked just off E Gulf to Lake Highway, offering an ideal blend of privacy, convenience, and Florida lifestyle living. Surrounded by mature trees and a fully fenced yard, this cozy home sits on a generous lot with room to entertain, garden, or expand. Step inside to an inviting layout featuring warm natural light and comfortable living spaces perfect for a downsizer, or anyone looking for an affordable, centrally located home. Outside, enjoy a spacious lawn, established landscaping, and a beautiful custom wood deck complete with seating—an ideal place for morning coffee, weekend gatherings, or unwinding under the shade of towering oaks.

Key facts

• Custom wood deck
• Move in ready
• Quiet charm

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• CUSTOM WOOD DECK
• PRIME LOCATION
• QUICK ACCESS TO STORES
• QUIET CHARM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Property type: Residential, single family; Zoning: CLRMH
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.23-acre lot
• Exterior features: Deck; Fire pit; Wood fencing; Lake view; Above-ground private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Freezer; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Wall/window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Solid wood cabinets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($89/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.9% in Inverness — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#564 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Inverness Primary School (math 54% / reading 55%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 683 students, 65% FRL); Inverness Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 1,017 students, 60% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $150k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,689 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.21%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-23,896
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-20,453
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $41,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34450

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,157 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $689/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,147

Max offer price $149,995

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $50	+0% $7	+5% $-35	+10% $-77
Rent	-10% $-84	-5% $-38	+0% $7	+5% $53	+10% $99
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $46	base $7	+0.5pp $-31	+1.0pp $-71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,499
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,995 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,995 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,995 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,995 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,995 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,995 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,995 Active 191 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $149,995 Active 190 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,995 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,995 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,995 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,995 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,995 Active 179 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,995 Active 178 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,995 Active 177 DOM
16. 2025-12-04
    listed $169,995 Active
17. 2023-04-12
    soldstatus $62,000
18. 1988-12-01
    soldstatus $29,900
19. 1985-11-01
    soldstatus $25,000
20. 1983-08-01
    soldstatus $23,000
21. 1978-01-01
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $689 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,245 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$556/yr (+$46/mo · 80.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$689
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,111
• − Management: −$1,111
• − Depreciation: −$4,363
• Taxable loss: −$2,543
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$610
• After-tax cash flow: $699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Inverness

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #564
• US rank: #10791

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,621
• Population (ZIP): 10,408

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.56%
• Current HPI: 315.9725
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+844.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Listed $169,995 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 1988-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $29,900 Public Records
• 1985-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1983-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records
• 1978-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $689 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.