111 Rays Pl · Pocono Ranch Lands, PA 18328

$215,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1990 1.16 ac lot Est $228k · 6% under $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in Pocono Mountain Lake Estates, this charming 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers the privacy and tranquility you've been looking for. Set back from the main road and the only home on the street, you'll enjoy a peaceful setting surrounded by nature. Relax or entertain on the large rear deck overlooking the wooded surroundings. Inside, the cozy living area features a propane fireplace, perfect for chilly Pocono evenings. The full unfinished basement provides ample storage space and endless possibilities for future finishing. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, or weekend getaway, this home offers a quiet retreat while still being close to all the amenities Pocono Mount

Key facts

• Propane fireplace
• Peaceful setting
• Large rear deck

Tags

• POCONO MOUNTAIN LAKE ESTATES
• LARGE REAR DECK
• PROPANE FIREPLACE
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• PEACEFUL SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 1.16 acres
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $597 (about $49.75/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Residential property in Pocono Mt Lake Estates; Located on a private road (only house on the road)
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Living room propane fireplace; Unfinished basement; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Water heater; Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-630/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.4% in Pocono Ranch Lands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#1,037 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, schools F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $215k implies a 259% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,810 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $227,520
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
102 Sandstone Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,150 (-9%)	1mo	$305,000	$265	61
106 Keystone Ct	0.50mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,344 (+6%)	0mo	$238,000	$177	57
134 Lakeview Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,148 (-9%)	2mo	$140,000	$122	57
102 Mink Rd	0.53mi	2/1.5	1,175 (-7%)	19mo	$250,000	$213	48
120 Puma Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,233 (-2%)	20mo	$229,000	$186	47
103 Westfall Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,386 (+10%)	8mo	$247,200	$178	45
269 High Ridge Rd	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,344 (+6%)	13mo	$229,000	$170	44
117 Westwood Cir	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,176 (-7%)	18mo	$199,000	$169	42
259 Wild Acres Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,364 (+8%)	8mo	$245,000	$180	41
125 Lakeview Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,121 (-11%)	13mo	$225,000	$201	40
109 Westwood Cir	0.63mi	2/1.0	1,128 (-11%)	18mo	$238,000	$211	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $113,806
• Equity at exit: $193,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.61×
• Total profit: $337,877
• Equity at exit: $417,698

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18328

• Home prices YoY: 18.1%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,868 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,135/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,935

Max offer price $205,728

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $215,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,135 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,266 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: +$131/yr (+$11/mo · 4.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,417
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,135
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,793
• − Management: −$1,793
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$4,277
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,027
• After-tax cash flow: $397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pocono Ranch Lands

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #1037
• US rank: #11566

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,061

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.13%
• Current HPI: 248.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+258.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $215,000 PWMLS
• 1995-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,135 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.