2515 Gramarcy Ave #210 · Union City, CA 94587

$310,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,070 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1996 Est $361k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained mobile home located in the desirable Central Park West park. Built in 1996, this home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with an additional office space. The full interior of the home was newly painted in March. Space rent of $930.53. The community of Central Park West features excellent amenities, including a swimming pool, clubhouse, recreational facilities, and a playground, providing a convenient and enjoyable lifestyle setting. Perfect for buyers seeking affordability, location, and community amenities in one package.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Swimming pool
• Playground

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• RECREATIONAL FACILITIES
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Assessor is source for living area; No age restrictions; pets allowed with number restrictions
• HOA & community: Clubhouse; Community pool; Recreation room

Exterior

• Parking: 2 carport spaces (space #210); Space rent applies
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Other utilities (see remarks)
• Home design: Park home on leased land
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central forced air heating
• Interior features: Separate family room; Dining area (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $449 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $310k).
• Recommended offer: $305k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 1.8% in Union City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#150 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, cost of living F.
• New Haven Unified (suburban): math 43% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #85 of 517 in CA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $305,350 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.21%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $360,590
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2544 Franklin Ave #172	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,070 (0%)	7mo	$180,000	$168	84
2655 Parkside Dr #67	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (-3%)	14mo	$350,000	$337	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-19,955
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $26,393
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94587

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,280 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$388 /mo · $4,650/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,712

Max offer price $310,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2500 Medallion Dr Union City, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0	781	$2,585	$3.31	2d	9	0.43mi
3168 Courthouse Dr Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1207	$4,200	$3.48	15d	1	0.54mi
3221 San Carlos Way Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1396	$3,795	$2.72	3d	1	0.59mi
2262 Eric Ct #4 Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1003	$3,400	$3.39	3d	1	0.66mi
3307 San Marco Ct Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1349	$3,900	$2.89	3d	1	0.73mi
31101 Fredi St Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1035	$3,400	$3.29	22d	1	1.00mi
3900 Horner St Union City, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	757	$3,045	$4.02	5d	9	1.14mi
4123 Asimuth Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1280	$3,350	$2.62	44d	1	1.16mi
30927 Union City Blvd Union City, CA	2.0	2.0	1170	$3,500	$2.99	44d	1	1.18mi
4292 Comet Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,950	$2.36	24d	1	1.24mi
4402 Queen Anne Dr Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1357	$4,200	$3.10	2d	1	1.26mi
4428 Viejo Way Union City, CA	2.0	1.5	1054	$2,895	$2.75	44d	1	1.29mi
4562 Reyes Dr Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1155	$3,250	$2.81	15d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $310,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $310,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Well-maintained mobile home located in the desirable Central Park West park. Built in 1996, this home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with an additional office space. The full interior of the home was newly painted in March. Space rent of $930.53. The community of Central Park West features excellent amenities, including a swimming pool, clubhouse, recreational facilities, and a playground, providing a convenient and enjoyable lifestyle setting. Perfect for buyers seeking affordability, location, and community amenities in one package.

13. 2026-06-02
    listed $310,000 Active 1 DOM

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Well-maintained mobile home located in the desirable Central Park West park. Built in 1996, this home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with an additional office space. The full interior of the home was newly painted in March. Space rent of $930.53. The community of Central Park West features excellent amenities, including a swimming pool, clubhouse, recreational facilities, and a playground, providing a convenient and enjoyable lifestyle setting. Perfect for buyers seeking affordability, location, and community amenities in one package.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 55% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$4,650
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,149
• − Management: −$3,149
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable income: $483
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$116
• After-tax cash flow: $5,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626910
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $87,202
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1754
• State rank: #85 of 517 in CA

Livability — Union City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #150
• US rank: #5027

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union City, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 67,464
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,464
• Household income: $133,715
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1565.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 55% Hispanic / Latino 19% White 15% Two or more races 10% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 47% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 13% Tagalog/Filipino 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1280.49%
• Current HPI: 343.0333
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.49%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $310,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-06-02 Listed $310,000 MLSListings

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $452 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.