204 S Union St · Toulon, IL 61483

$48,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · Other

0.56 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Clean slate to build upon. This 4-bedroom home has had a fire on the second floor and is currently gutted and ready to make your own. Newer furnace and gutters 2022. This home features large corner lot, spacious rooms, wood burning fireplace, open staircase in the entry way and butler's staircase from the kitchen. The enclosed porch has new windows and additional insultation. Property is being sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• 0.56 acre lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#659 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Stark County CUSD 100 (rural): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #435 of 620 in IL (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Stark County High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #256 of 693 statewide, top 44%, 241 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 34% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Stark County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($332 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Stark County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $38k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.8% of price.

Recommended offer $48,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.11%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $33,397
• Equity at exit: $27,251

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.10×
• Total profit: $81,944
• Equity at exit: $47,074

Cash invested: $13,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61483

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,285/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $585

Max offer price $48,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,000
• Closing costs: $1,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
3. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-23
   soldstatus $38,500 Closed
5. 2026-01-23
   soldstatus $38,500 Closed
6. 2026-01-23
   soldstatus $38,500 Closed
7. 2026-01-23
   soldstatus $38,500 Closed
8. 2026-01-08
   status Pending
9. 2026-01-05
   historical
10. 2026-01-01
    soldstatus $38,500
11. 2025-11-21
    historical
12. 2024-08-27
    listed $48,000
13. 2020-02-01
    soldstatus $63,000
14. 1993-03-01
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,285 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,285 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,689
• − Property taxes: −$2,285
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$985
• − Management: −$985
• − Depreciation: −$1,396
• Taxable income: $3,732
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$896
• After-tax cash flow: $3,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stark County CUSD 100
• NCES district ID: 1737490
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $49,620
• Composite: 17.04/100
• National rank: #9124
• State rank: #435 of 620 in IL

Livability — Toulon

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #659
• US rank: #13531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toulon, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,876

Population outlook (Stark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,233 people
• By 2030: 4,898 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 4,130 · -21.1%
• By 2050: 3,369 · -35.6%
• By 2075: 2,062 · -60.6%
• By 2100: 1,205 · -77.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Romanian 2% English 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Stark

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.6) · D 26.3% · R 71.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.2pp toward R · 2008: -5.4pp · 2024: -45.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.6 2020: R+41.2 2016: R+38.0 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+5.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.02%
• Current HPI: 141.1894
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+28.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-24 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-23 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Sold (MLS) $38,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Sold (MLS) $38,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Sold (MLS) $38,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Sold (MLS) $38,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,500 Public Records
• 2025-11-21 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-27 Listed $48,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 1993-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,285 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.