148 Fate Ln · Witts Springs, AR 72686

$94,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 2011 10 ac lot $105/sqft · 33% below area Est $141k · 33% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to true freedom with this charming 900 sq. ft. off-grid cabin nestled on 10 private, wooded acres m/l, just minutes from the National Forest. This secluded property is perfect for those seeking peace, privacy, and a self-sufficient lifestyle. Surrounded by nature, the land is teeming with wildlife, offering incredible opportunities for hunting, hiking, and outdoor recreation right outside your door. Whether you’re looking for a full-time off-grid residence, weekend getaway, hunting cabin, or homestead, this property delivers unmatched serenity and natural beauty. If you’ve been dreaming of unplugging and living closer to the land, this rare off-grid opportunity is ready for you.

Key facts

• Off-grid cabin
• National forest
• Wildlife

Tags

• OFF-GRID CABIN
• PRIVATE WOODED ACRES
• NATIONAL FOREST
• WILDLIFE
• SELF-SUFFICIENT LIFESTYLE
• NATURAL BEAUTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($111/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $83k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Searcy County School District (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #82 of 238 in AR (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($653 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Searcy County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.42%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,166
• List price: $94,500
• Delta: -33.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
242 Ida	0.59mi	1/1.0	968 (+8%)	5mo	$185,999	$192	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $11,985
• Equity at exit: $42,491

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $41,872
• Equity at exit: $65,484

Cash invested: $26,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72686

• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $838 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$118 /mo · $1,418/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $827

Max offer price $94,500

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,625
• Closing costs: $2,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $94,500 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,500 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,500 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,500 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,500 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $94,500 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $94,500 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,500 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,500 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,500 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,500 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $94,500 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,500 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,500 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,500 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,500 Active 144 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    price $80,000 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Escape to true freedom with this charming 900 sq. ft. off-grid cabin nestled on 10 private, wooded acres m/l, just minutes from the National Forest. This secluded property is perfect for those seeking peace, privacy, and a self-sufficient lifestyle. Surrounded by nature, the land is teeming with wildlife, offering incredible opportunities for hunting, hiking, and outdoor recreation right outside your door. Whether you’re looking for a full-time off-grid residence, weekend getaway, hunting cabin, or homestead, this property delivers unmatched serenity and natural beauty. If you’ve been dreaming of unplugging and living closer to the land, this rare off-grid opportunity is ready for you.

18. 2026-01-05
    listed $94,500 Active 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Escape to true freedom with this charming 900 sq. ft. off-grid cabin nestled on 10 private, wooded acres, just minutes from the National Forest. This secluded property is perfect for those seeking peace, privacy, and a self-sufficient lifestyle. Surrounded by nature, the land is teeming with wildlife, offering incredible opportunities for hunting, hiking, and outdoor recreation right outside your door. Whether you’re looking for a full-time off-grid residence, weekend getaway, hunting cabin, or homestead, this property delivers unmatched serenity and natural beauty. If you’ve been dreaming of unplugging and living closer to the land, this rare off-grid opportunity is ready for you.

19. 2026-01-05
    listed $94,500 Active 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Escape to true freedom with this charming 900 sq. ft. off-grid cabin nestled on 10 private, wooded acres, just minutes from the National Forest. This secluded property is perfect for those seeking peace, privacy, and a self-sufficient lifestyle. Surrounded by nature, the land is teeming with wildlife, offering incredible opportunities for hunting, hiking, and outdoor recreation right outside your door. Whether you’re looking for a full-time off-grid residence, weekend getaway, hunting cabin, or homestead, this property delivers unmatched serenity and natural beauty. If you’ve been dreaming of unplugging and living closer to the land, this rare off-grid opportunity is ready for you.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,293
• − Property taxes: −$1,418
• − Insurance: −$472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$805
• − Management: −$805
• − Depreciation: −$2,749
• Taxable loss: −$1,482
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$356
• After-tax cash flow: $466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Searcy County School District
• NCES district ID: 0509480
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $31,222
• Composite: 32.28/100
• National rank: #5751
• State rank: #82 of 238 in AR

Livability — Witts Springs

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 128

Population outlook (Searcy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,091 people
• By 2030: 6,656 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 5,868 · -17.2%
• By 2050: 5,250 · -26.0%
• By 2075: 4,407 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 3,834 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Searcy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.2) · D 13.2% · R 85.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.3pp toward R · 2008: -45.9pp · 2024: -72.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.2 2020: R+69.1 2016: R+63.7 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+45.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-15.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $80,000 MHMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $94,500 NWARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $94,500 MHMLS

Property tax history

-21.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $17 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.